Analyzing Accupredict Driver Projection Metric: Driver Rating at Track
In this week's preview for the Bank of America ROVAL 400 at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course, I'm focusing on one of the key metrics in the Accupredict driver projection algorithm - Driver Rating at Track. The ROVAL is a unique challenge, blending the high-speed elements of a traditional oval with the technical demands of a road course. Understanding a driver's performance history at this track can provide valuable insight into their potential for success this weekend.
What is so important about Driver Rating?
NASCAR's Loop Data Driver Rating is a metric that quantifies a driver's performance in a single race. This rating is calculated using a detailed formula that takes into account various critical race statistics, including finishing position, average running position, average speed, and fastest laps. Additional bonus points are awarded for achievements such as winning the race, leading the most laps, and maintaining a strong average running position. The perfect Driver Rating is 150.0.
For this analysis, I reviewed data from the six Cup races held at the ROVAL, focusing on Driver Ratings from the top-10 finishers in each race. This analysis helps us understand what it takes to compete at the front of the field at this challenging circuit.
I like to start out with my baselines of what it took to finish in the top-10 in previous ROVAL races.
Average Driver Rating of Top-10 Finishers at Charlotte ROVAL
Here we have the last six races and the Average Driver Rating of the top-10 finishers. Also, the Minimum (or lowest) and the Maximum (or highest) of the Driver Ratings in the top-10. Finally, the winners Driver Rating.
The numbers hold pretty steady across all six races. It's interesting to note that only in 50% of the races did the winner have the highest Driver Rating. Also, the fact that the minimum Driver Rating is considerably lower than the average. It seems that at least one driver each race is surprisingly slipping into the top-10 at the end of the race.
| Race Name | Date | Average Rating | Min Rating | Max Rating | Winner Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bank of America ROVAL 400 | 10-2023 | 106.91 | 79.00 | 142.50 | 142.50 |
| Bank of America ROVAL 400 | 10-2022 | 94.63 | 62.30 | 119.00 | 103.90 |
| Bank of America ROVAL 400 | 10-2021 | 101.55 | 78.90 | 121.10 | 117.60 |
| Bank of America ROVAL 400 | 10-2020 | 106.47 | 81.40 | 129.60 | 129.60 |
| Bank of America Roval 400 | 09-2019 | 106.92 | 80.80 | 139.20 | 139.20 |
| Bank of America Roval 400 | 09-2018 | 95.85 | 80.80 | 107.00 | 104.20 |
Drivers with an average Driver Rating for a top-10 finish at the Charlotte ROVAL
Here are the drivers with outstanding average Driver Ratings at the ROVAL - listed in order of best average Driver Rating.
Chase Elliott
- #9 Unifirst Chevrolet
- Hendrick Motorsports
Of all the Cup Series drivers that have raced on the Charlotte ROVAL, none have been better than Chase Elliott and the #9 Hendrick Chevrolet team. He is ranked #2 in the Accupredict Driver Projections, with a predicted Win percentage of 14.3%, Top-3 at 32.0% and Top-10 at 68.8%,
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Avg Driver Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 104.70 | 139.20 | 129.90 | 82.30 | 106.70 | 104.70 | 111.20 |
The best Cup Series road course racer of 2020 and 2021 was undoubtedly Chase Elliott with wins at the ROVAL, Daytona Road Course, COTA and Road America. Although his 'destiny' as the driver poised to take over the all-time Road Course victories title away from Jeff Gordon has faded some the last couple of seasons, his career Cup statistics on tracks with lots of left and right turns is impressive.
| Races | Wins | Poles | Top-5 | Top-10 | Top-15 | Top-20 | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 7 | 4 | 19 | 23 | 26 | 30 | 8.60 | 9.06 |
Given his past performance at the ROVAL - Chase Elliott should deliver a good finish and optimal points for your fantasy team and even a win or Top-3 for those wagering money on him.
William Byron
- #24 Valvoline Confetti Chevrolet
- Hendrick Motorsports
William Byron comes to this race at the top of the Playoff Standings - sitting +17 points ahead of second and +74 above the cut-line. Byron has yet to win a race here at the ROVAL, his best finish came last year with a second place just 0.666 seconds behind winner AJ Allmendinger. Byron is ranked #3 in the Accupredict Driver Projections, with a predicted Win percentage of 13.2%, Top-3 at 30.0% and Top-10 at 66.9%,
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Avg Driver Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74.30 | 122.80 | 118.40 | 124.20 | 91.90 | 108.10 | 106.62 |
Byron doesn't have the impressive resume at all the road courses the way that Chase Elliott does. His second-strongest road course venue is Circuit Of The Americas which is a fast track like the ROVAL.
| Races | Wins | Poles | Top-5 | Top-10 | Top-15 | Top-20 | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 18 | 21 | 12.19 | 16.31 |
You can feel pretty good about Byron's chances at the ROVAL this weekend. If things fall his way, a win wouldn't be a surprise - but he is one of the best options for a top-5 finish.
Tyler Reddick
- #45 Monster Energy Toyota
- 23XI Racing
Tyler Reddick is good - even great - at most race venues. Reddick has just four Cup series starts at the ROVAL - three with RCR in the #8 and one with his current ride in the #45 at 23XI Racing. His average finish with these two teams is 7th and 6th respectively. Reddick is ranked #1 in the Accupredict Driver Projections, with a predicted Win percentage of 18.1%, Top-3 at 38.5% and Top-10 at 75.0%,
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Avg Driver Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74.80 | 120.20 | 115.90 | 114.90 | 106.45 |
| Races | Wins | Poles | Top-5 | Top-10 | Top-15 | Top-20 | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 18 | 20 | 7.58 | 12.31 |
I would say that this race is Tyler Reddick's to lose. He has the second-best Current Form average finish of 12.07 and the third-best ROVAL average Driver Rating with 106.45. A mistake-free day puts Reddick in victory lane.
AJ Allmendinger
- #16 Celsius Chevrolet
- Kaulig Racing
Allmendinger is the defending race winner at the ROVAL. He dominated the race, leading twice for 46 laps and had a stellar Driver Rating of 142.50 (out of 150.00). He is ranked #9 in the Accupredict Driver Projections, with a predicted Win percentage of 3.7%, Top-3 at 13.0% and Top-10 at 46.9%,
| 2018 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Avg Driver Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80.80 | 70.40 | 119.00 | 142.50 | 103.18 |
| Races | Wins | Poles | Top-5 | Top-10 | Top-15 | Top-20 | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 21 | 27 | 29 | 12.17 | 16.05 |
Allmendinger is an obvious threat to win on most road courses and this weekend's race at the ROVAL is no exception. Allmendinger's ranking of 9th is primarily due to other Accupredict ranking metrics that are dragging him down. Specifically, his 28.89 Current Form average finish and a dismal year-to-date Driver Rating of 59.07. If things go right for Allmendinger and his crew this weekend he is definitely due a higher ranking and a threat to go back-to-back.
Driver Rating is just one metric to consider
Although one of the top metrics in the Accupredict algorithm - Driver Rating is not the only one to look at. Since Driver Rating falls under a 'historical statistic', winning in the Cup Series is closely tied to the current performance a driver is achieving. An extended practice session this weekend and qualifying should help you add additional value or takeaway from these four drivers.
