Accupredict's Steep Track Group
As the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Las Vegas Motor Speedway this week, fans and fantasy players alike are eager to see which drivers will emerge as top contenders. With its high banking and fast speeds, Las Vegas is part of the 'Steep Track' group in the Accupredict (AP) system - a classification that also includes challenging circuits like Bristol, Darlington, and Dover. These tracks demand not only raw speed but also precision handling through high - speed turns, making performance on Steep tracks a key indicator for success at Las Vegas.
In this article, I'll take a data - driven look at how the top drivers stack up. Using Accupredict's projected finishes and average performance on Steep tracks – the TYPE column in the Accupredict table, we'll evaluate how drivers are expected to perform this week. We'll dive into driver's historical performance at Las Vegas, looking at best finishes and average results over the past two, four, and six years.
By combining insights from Accupredict with recent track history, my aim is to give you a clear picture of which drivers are poised for success - and a couple that might be a gamble at Las Vegas. Whether you're playing fantasy NASCAR or just looking to better understand this week's field, this analysis offers a deep dive into the trends that could define the race.
High Expectations and Consistency
Kyle Larson
- #5 HendrickCars.com Chevrolet
- Hendrick Motorsports
Let's start with the driver that has won the last two races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Kyle Larson. Larson shows some interesting trends that highlight his strength, both on Steep tracks and at Las Vegas Motor Speedway:
- AP Predicted Finish: Larson is ranked 1st in AP predictions with a projected finish of 9.18. This suggests he's considered the top contender for this race based on recent performance at Steep tracks.
- Average Finish at Steep Tracks: His average finish at Steep tracks (TYPE) is 10.25, indicating that he consistently performs well at this track type. While this number is not drastically lower than his AP projected finish, it confirms that he's one of the stronger drivers on these high-speed, high-banking tracks.
- Best Finish at Las Vegas: Larson's best finish at Las Vegas is 1st, and his 2-year average finish at the track is an incredible 1.3. This shows he's been dominant in Las Vegas recently, winning and finishing near the top in most races.
- Consistency: Over the last 11 Las Vegas races, Larson has had a mix of finishes, with some fluctuation (e.g., 12th, 8th, and 9th), but more recently, his results have been stellar, including wins and top finishes.
Key Trend
High Expectations and Consistency:Larson's AP Rank (1st) and strong performance at Steep tracks, coupled with his excellent recent form at Las Vegas, suggest that he's both a favorite and a consistently high - performer at similar tracks. His ability to win at Las Vegas multiple times, combined with his solid average finish at Steep tracks, makes him one of the most reliable picks for this race.
His performance trends make him a safe bet for both fantasy players and bettors, especially given his track record at Las Vegas
High Ceiling with Occasional Variability
Denny Hamlin
- #11 Yahoo! Toyota
- Joe Gibbs Racing
- AP Predicted Finish: Hamlin's AP projected finish for this race is 9.89, placing him 2nd in the Accupredict rankings. This suggests that he's expected to be a top contender based on his recent performance at Steep tracks
- Average Finish at Steep Tracks (TYPE): His average finish across the last 8 races at Steep tracks is 8.13, which is slightly better than his AP projected finish. This shows that he has a strong, consistent track record at Steep tracks, outperforming some of his peers in this track group.His performance at Steep tracks like Bristol, Darlington, and Dover highlights his ability to handle the speed and high banking these tracks demand.
- Best Finish at Las Vegas: Hamlin has the best finish of 1st at Las Vegas, indicating that he's capable of winning at this track. However, his results have been somewhat mixed over the years, with some mid - pack finishes as well.
- Recent Las Vegas Performance: Over the last 11 Las Vegas races, Hamlin has had a variety of results, including top finishes like 3rd, 1st, and a few finishes in the top 10. Inconsistencies in recent years, where he had some mid - tier finishes, like 32nd and 10th, which reflect that while he's had strong performances, he can also experience off days.
- Consistency Over the Years: His 2-year average at Las Vegas is 9.7, which aligns with his AP predicted finish. His 4-year average at Las Vegas is slightly higher at 10.1, suggesting a trend of being competitive but not always dominant.
Key Trend
High Ceiling with Occasional Variability: Hamlin's AP Rank and Steep track average suggest that he's very capable of a strong finish at Las Vegas. His 8.13 Steep track average shows consistency at this track type, while his 1st - place best finish at Las Vegas proves he has the ability to win here. However, his results at Las Vegas show some variability, meaning he might not always deliver a top finish, but he's almost always competitive.
For fantasy players or bettors, Hamlin is a strong pick with a high ceiling, but there's a small risk of a mid - pack finish based on past inconsistency.
Potential but Inconsistent
Chase Elliott
- #9 NAPA Auto Parts Chevrolet
- Hendrick Motorsports
- AP Predicted Finish: Elliott's AP predicted finish for this race is 12.32, which ranks him 7th. This suggests that while he's seen as a competitive driver, he's not one of the top favorites for this race based on his recent Steep track performance.
- Average Finish at Steep Tracks (TYPE): His average finish at Steep tracks is 12.13, which aligns closely with his AP predicted finish. This consistency between his predicted and Steep track averages suggests that he tends to perform at a mid - tier level on Steep tracks like Darlington, Dover, and Bristol.
- Best Finish at Las Vegas: Elliott has the best finish of 2nd at Las Vegas, showing he's capable of being a top contender at this track. However, his performance at Las Vegas has been somewhat inconsistent, with a range of finishes, including a few strong results but also some outside the top 20.
- Recent Las Vegas Performance: Over the last 11 races at Las Vegas, Elliott's finishes have been mixed: He has had some top 10 finishes, such as 9th and 4th, but also some less favorable results like 26th, 32nd, and 21st. His 2-year average at Las Vegas is 22.0, which is quite low compared to his peers and indicates that he has struggled at this track in recent races. His 4-year average is 14.8, showing a bit more consistency over a longer period but still suggesting he faces challenges at Las Vegas.
- Variability Across the Years: His 6 - year average at Las Vegas is 15.0, further reinforcing the trend that Elliott tends to be a mid - pack driver here, with occasional flashes of brilliance (like his 2nd place finish). This variability may point to a driver who can contend if everything aligns, but also one who faces challenges at times.
Key Trend
Potential but Inconsistent: Chase Elliott shows potential with the best finish of 2nd at Las Vegas and solid performances at other Steep tracks. However, his recent average finishes at Las Vegas (22.0 over the last 2 years) and his AP predicted finish (12.32) suggest that he could be a bit of a gamble. He's a driver with a high ceiling but also high variability, meaning he can deliver a top 5 finish, but could just as easily finish outside the top 20.
For fantasy players or bettors, Elliott is a riskier pick. He has the talent and past results to be competitive, but his recent form at Las Vegas suggests he might under perform compared to other top contenders.
Rapid Improvement but Volatility
Ross Chastain
- #1 Worldwide Express Chevrolet
- Trackhouse Racing
- AP Predicted Finish: Chastain's AP predicted finish is 12.95, which places him 8th overall. This prediction suggests that he's considered competitive but not one of the top favorites for this race.
- Average Finish at Steep Tracks (TYPE): His Average Finish at Steep Tracks is 11.63, indicating that he's had solid but not stellar results at Steep tracks like Bristol, Darlington, and Dover. This number shows that he's consistent on Steep tracks but is not among the absolute best at these types of circuits.
- Best Finish at Las Vegas: Chastain's best finish at Las Vegas is 2nd, showing that he's capable of a strong finish at this track when things go his way. However, this high finish contrasts with some of his more inconsistent results at Las Vegas, as we'll see below.
- Recent Las Vegas Performance: His last 11 races at Las Vegas show significant variability: While he has had a 2nd place finish recently, he's also had finishes of 33rd, 31st, and 27th, showing a wide range of outcomes. His 2-year average at Las Vegas is 7.0, which suggests that despite his past variability, his more recent performance has been much stronger and consistent. His 4-year average at Las Vegas is 10.3, which further highlights an improving trend, but it still reflects some struggles he has faced in the past.
- Improvement Over Time: Chastain's 6-year average at Las Vegas is 16.3, which is notably higher (worse) than his recent averages, indicating that he has steadily improved at this track over time. While he once struggled at Las Vegas, his recent finishes have been much better, making him a stronger contender for upcoming races.
Key Trend
Rapid Improvement but Volatility: Ross Chastain's trends show that he's made significant strides in recent years, with his 2-year average of 7.0 reflecting strong, consistent results. However, his overall history at Las Vegas, including some finishes in the 30s, suggests there is still some risk of variability. His AP predicted finish of 12.95 aligns well with his historical performance at Steep tracks, but there's potential for him to outperform this projection based on his recent upward trend at Las Vegas.
For fantasy players or bettors, Chastain is a driver with high potential but still carries some risk of a lower finish. His recent performances show he's trending in the right direction, but his history of inconsistency makes him a bit of a gamble.
Capable but Inconsistent
Christopher Bell
- #20 Rheem Toyota
- Joe Gibbs Racing
- AP Predicted Finish: Bell's AP predicted finish is 11.28, ranking him 3rd overall in the projections for this race. This high rank suggests that Accupredict views him as a top contender based on his recent performance at Steep tracks.
- Average Finish at Steep Tracks (TYPE): Bell's Average Finish at Steep Tracks is 12.63, indicating that while he's performed well on these tracks, he's not among the very top drivers. His average shows he's competitive, but not dominant, at tracks like Darlington, Bristol, and Dover.
- Best Finish at Las Vegas: Bell's best finish at Las Vegas is 2nd, showing that he's capable of a strong result at this track. However, his overall results at Las Vegas have been inconsistent, as seen below.
- Recent Las Vegas Performance: Bell's finishes at Las Vegas have been volatile: His recent results include a 33rd place finish, as well as 5th and 2nd, demonstrating a wide range of outcomes. He's had a few poor finishes, but also strong showings like his 2nd - place finish, indicating potential if things go well. His 2-year average at Las Vegas is 13.3, which is respectable but not elite. This average suggests that while Bell has had good performances, he also has some mid - pack finishes that bring down his overall consistency.
- Variability and Room for Growth: Bell's 4-year average is 16.4, and his 6 - year average is 19.1, reflecting that his earlier Las Vegas races were more challenging. These higher averages indicate that Bell has struggled to consistently finish in the top tier but has recently improved.
Key Trend
Capable but Inconsistent: Christopher Bell's AP rank of 3rd and his strong Steep track performance show that he's expected to be a top contender at Las Vegas. However, his history at the track suggests a degree of inconsistency, with his 2nd - place best finish balanced by several lower finishes. His 13.3 average finish over the last two years shows that while he's improving, he's not as reliable as some other top drivers on this track.
For fantasy players or bettors, Bell is a strong pick with high upside, but he carries some risk due to his inconsistent results at Las Vegas. If he can avoid trouble, he's capable of contending for a top finish.
