Analyzing Accupredict Driver Projection Metric: Driver Rating at Track
In this week's 'Driver Rating' preview for the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, a very interesting trend appeared. I'll share that find with you and also highlight the top Driver Rating drivers for this week's race in Vegas.
What is so important about Driver Rating?
NASCAR's Loop Data Driver Rating is a metric that quantifies a driver's performance in a single race. This rating is calculated using a detailed formula that takes into account various critical race statistics, including finishing position, average running position, average speed, and fastest laps. Additional bonus points are awarded for achievements such as winning the race, leading the most laps, and maintaining a strong average running position. The perfect Driver Rating is 150.0.
For this analysis, I reviewed data from the last 26 six Cup races held at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway, focusing on Driver Ratings from the top-10 finishers in each race. This analysis helps us understand what it takes to compete at the front of the field at this track.
I like to start out with my baselines of what it took to finish in the top-10 in previous Vegas races.
Average Driver Rating of Top-10 Finishers at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Here we have the last 26-races and the Average Driver Rating of the top-10 finishers. Also, the Minimum (or lowest) and the Maximum (or highest) of the Driver Ratings in the top-10. Finally, the winners Driver Rating.
| Race Name | Date | Average Rating | Min Rating | Max Rating | Winner Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pennzoil 400 | Mar-24 | 105.83 | 81.30 | 148.10 | 148.10 |
| South Point 400 | Oct-23 | 108.42 | 90.30 | 146.50 | 146.50 |
| Pennzoil 400 | Mar-23 | 101.09 | 72.10 | 148.20 | 148.20 |
| South Point 400 | Oct-22 | 94.35 | 74.70 | 130.60 | 130.60 |
| Pennzoil 400 | Mar-22 | 102.93 | 78.50 | 128.30 | 118.20 |
| South Point 400 | Sep-21 | 107.74 | 85.40 | 140.40 | 140.40 |
| Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube | Mar-21 | 107.63 | 81.70 | 142.60 | 142.60 |
| South Point 400 | Sep-20 | 102.97 | 75.00 | 138.50 | 101.00 |
| Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube | Feb-20 | 94.02 | 65.00 | 125.80 | 124.20 |
| South Point 400 | Sep-19 | 105.18 | 79.20 | 127.60 | 125.90 |
| Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube | Mar-19 | 109.78 | 96.50 | 134.40 | 131.50 |
| South Point 400 | Sep-18 | 97.03 | 67.30 | 135.10 | 118.10 |
| Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube | Mar-18 | 107.40 | 79.40 | 150.00 | 150.00 |
| Kobalt 400 | Mar-17 | 105.05 | 75.80 | 147.60 | 147.60 |
| Kobalt 400 | Mar-16 | 107.29 | 86.50 | 130.60 | 122.10 |
| Kobalt 400 | Mar-15 | 108.84 | 92.40 | 141.50 | 141.50 |
| Kobalt Tools 400 | Mar-14 | 106.77 | 88.20 | 134.60 | 134.60 |
| Kobalt Tools 400 | Mar-13 | 112.23 | 90.40 | 138.90 | 120.90 |
| Kobalt Tools 400 | Mar-12 | 104.81 | 78.50 | 141.70 | 141.70 |
| Kobalt Tools 400 | Mar-11 | 105.39 | 83.80 | 134.40 | 134.40 |
| Shelby American | Feb-10 | 108.10 | 87.20 | 144.20 | 130.20 |
| Shelby 427 | Mar-09 | 99.63 | 84.80 | 118.40 | 107.80 |
| UAW-Dodge 400 | Mar-08 | 98.46 | 73.60 | 134.50 | 134.50 |
| UAW-Daimler Chrysler 400 | Mar-07 | 103.48 | 83.70 | 138.20 | 138.20 |
| UAW-Daimler Chrysler 400 | Mar-06 | 107.70 | 79.50 | 135.80 | 122.30 |
| UAW-Daimler Chrysler 400 | Mar-05 | 110.34 | 89.40 | 140.50 | 140.50 |
Recent Races Show a Resurgence of Dominance
The last 7 races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway reveal a return to dominance by top-performing drivers. 6 out of the 7 winners not only crossed the finish line first but also held the highest Driver Rating in their respective races. On average, the winning Driver Rating during this period stands at 139.23, with the top rating in the field reaching 140.67. A key contributor to this dominance is lap leadership, with 5 winners leading more than 50% of the race. This combination of speed, strategy, and consistency is propelling drivers to more commanding victories.
A Shift from Unpredictability in the Previous 5 Races
In contrast, the previous 5 races at Las Vegas were marked by greater unpredictability, with none of the winners achieving the highest Driver Rating. The winner's average Driver Rating during this period dropped to 120.14, and the races showcased a wider range of outcomes, driven by strategic calls or lucky breaks. These races highlight that while raw performance is important, other factors - like pit strategy, race cautions, and on-track battles - can still play a decisive role.
Earlier Races: Historically Predictable Outcomes
Looking back further, the earlier races at Las Vegas were generally more predictable. 9 winners in these races posted the highest Driver Ratings, with winners averaging a 133.31 Driver Rating. This period reflects a time when the top drivers and teams consistently delivered dominant performances, aligning well with Accupredict's projections.
The Takeaway: A Cycle of Dominance and Strategy
The evolving trends at Las Vegas reveal cycles between dominance and unpredictability. Recently, the competition has shifted back to favor the strongest drivers, as reflected in their high Driver Ratings and consistent lap leadership. As the current trend suggests, performance metrics like Driver Rating are becoming increasingly reliable indicators of race outcomes. For fantasy players and bettors, focusing on drivers with top-tier ratings could be the key to success moving forward.
Drivers with an average Driver Rating for a top-10 finish at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Here are the drivers with outstanding average Driver Ratings at Vegas - listed in order of best average Driver Rating.
A Top Contender at Las Vegas
Kyle Larson
- #5 HendrickCars.com Chevrolet
- Hendrick Motorsports
Kyle Larson enters Las Vegas as the Accupredict favorite, ranked 1st with a 15.8% chance to win and a 79.8% chance of finishing in the top-10. Larson has a strong track record at Las Vegas, with three wins, making it one of his most successful venues. His average Driver Rating of 120.09 over the last 7 races reflects his dominance at this track, consistently performing well in recent events.
| 2021 | 2021 | 2022 | 2022 | 2023 | 2023 | 2024 | Avg Driver Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 142.60 | 113.40 | 108.90 | 54.80 | 126.30 | 146.50 | 148.10 | 120.09 |
Currently sitting 1st in the Playoffs, Larson carries solid momentum into this race. His Year-to-Date Driver Rating of 101.13 highlights his overall performance this season, and his current form is equally promising, with an 8.8 average finish across the last five races (excluding superspeedways). In fact, his last three races show even better momentum, averaging a 10.3 finish, with one top-3 and two top-5s.
Given his consistency, strong playoff position, and history of success at Las Vegas, Larson is an excellent pick for fantasy teams and bettors alike. With high Accupredict projections and momentum on his side, he's well-positioned to compete for another victory this weekend.
Consistent and Poised for a Strong Finish
Denny Hamlin
- #11 Yahoo! Toyota
- Joe Gibbs Racing
Denny Hamlin arrives at Las Vegas ranked 2nd in the Accupredict model, with a 14.5% chance to win and a 77.4% chance to finish in the top-10. As a past winner at Las Vegas, Hamlin knows what it takes to get the job done on this track. His average Driver Rating of 109.44 over the last 7 races highlights his ability to consistently perform near the front.
| 2021 | 2021 | 2022 | 2022 | 2023 | 2023 | 2024 | Avg Driver Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 116.60 | 140.40 | 101.40 | 93.40 | 105.20 | 102.40 | 106.70 | 109.44 |
Currently 6th in the Playoffs, Hamlin brings solid momentum into this weekend. Over the last five races (excluding Talladega and Atlanta), he has recorded an 11.8 average finish with three top-10s. That momentum has continued over the last three races, where he has averaged a 10.7 finish with two top-10s.
Though Hamlin hasn't dominated in the same way as some others, his combination of consistency and playoff urgency makes him a dangerous contender. With strong projections from Accupredict and a solid history at Las Vegas, Hamlin should be in the mix for a top finish. Keep him on your radar for fantasy lineups and as a solid bet to challenge for another victory.
Searching for Momentum at Las Vegas
Ryan Blaney
- #12 Menards / Great Stuff Ford
- Team Penske
Ryan Blaney comes into Las Vegas ranked 5th in the Accupredict model, with a 7.5% chance to win and a 62.1% chance of finishing in the top-10. While he has yet to capture a win at this track, his best finish of 3rd shows he has the potential to contend. Blaney's average Driver Rating of 100.10 over the last 7 races at Las Vegas reflects solid, but not dominant, performances.
| 2021 | 2021 | 2022 | 2022 | 2023 | 2023 | 2024 | Avg Driver Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 111.50 | 109.30 | 79.70 | 104.70 | 80.70 | 106.30 | 107.90 | 100.01 |
Currently sitting 5th in the Playoffs, Blaney needs a strong finish to maintain his position in the championship race. His current form over the last five races, excluding Talladega and Atlanta, shows an average finish of 19.4 with three top-10s. However, the lack of recent momentum is a concern—his Year-to-Date Driver Rating of 87.58 highlights a season with some inconsistency.
Blaney will need to find more speed this weekend to compete with the stronger contenders. While not a top pick for victory, his playoff position and track experience make him a reasonable choice for fantasy lineups targeting top-10 finishes. If everything aligns, Blaney could sneak into contention, but he'll need to improve on his recent form to do so.
Riding a Wave of Momentum into Las Vegas
William Byron
- #24 RaptorTough.com Chevrolet
- Hendrick Motorsports
William Byron heads to Las Vegas ranked 6th in the Accupredict model, with a 7.2% chance to win and a 61.4% chance of finishing in the top-10. Byron is a past winner at Las Vegas, and his average Driver Rating of 107.89 over the last 7 races underscores his capability to run near the front.
| 2021 | 2021 | 2022 | 2022 | 2023 | 2023 | 2024 | Avg Driver Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 111.40 | 99.00 | 111.20 | 93.50 | 148.20 | 107.80 | 84.10 | 107.89 |
Currently sitting 4th in the Playoffs, Byron brings some of the best recent momentum in the field. His current form shows an 11.8 average finish over the last five races (excluding Talladega and Atlanta), including three top-10s. However, it's his last three races that truly stand out—Byron has averaged a 2.7 finish with one runner-up and three top-2 finishes during this stretch, positioning him as one of the hottest drivers entering this weekend.
Byron's combination of momentum, playoff position, and past success at Las Vegas makes him a strong contender. While not the Accupredict favorite, he has the form and experience to be in the hunt for another victory. If he continues his recent performance trend, Byron could easily walk away with a top finish—or even another win.
Peaking at the Right Time for a Strong Playoff Push
Christopher Bell
- #20 Rheem Toyota
- Joe Gibbs Racing
Christopher Bell arrives at Las Vegas ranked 3rd in the Accupredict model, with a 9.6% chance to win and a 67.1% chance of finishing in the top-10. His best finish at this track is 2nd, and although his average Driver Rating of 87.51 over the last 7 races at Las Vegas isn't among the highest, Bell's recent performances signal a driver on the rise.
| 2021 | 2021 | 2022 | 2022 | 2023 | 2023 | 2024 | Avg Driver Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99.80 | 63.00 | 92.30 | 66.80 | 101.00 | 126.00 | 63.70 | 87.51 |
Sitting 2nd in the Playoffs, Bell's momentum is undeniable. His current form over the last five races (excluding Talladega and Atlanta) shows an impressive 6.8 average finish, with four top-10s. Even more telling is his performance over the last three races, where he has averaged a 5.0 finish, including a runner-up result and three top-10s.
With his strong playoff standing, consistent form, and upward momentum, Bell is a solid contender to finish near the front at Las Vegas. Though he may not be the odds-on favorite, his ability to run well under pressure makes him a valuable choice for both fantasy lineups and bettors seeking a high upside pick. A breakthrough win here wouldn't come as a surprise given his recent trajectory.
Strong Potential but Searching for Consistency
Tyler Reddick
- #45 Jordan Brand Toyota
- 23XI Racing
Tyler Reddick heads into Las Vegas with an Accupredict rank of 4th, giving him a 9.2% chance to win and a 66.0% chance to finish in the top-10. His best finish at this track is 2nd, and his average Driver Rating of 92.93 over the last 7 races indicates solid performance but not dominance.
| 2021 | 2021 | 2022 | 2022 | 2023 | 2023 | 2024 | Avg Driver Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60.10 | 104.70 | 85.00 | 102.70 | 81.10 | 91.80 | 102.20 | 92.23 |
Currently sitting 3rd in the Playoffs, Reddick needs a strong showing to maintain his championship hopes. However, his current form is a concern, with a 20.6 average finish over the last five races (excluding superspeedways) and no top-10 finishes during that span. His Year-to-Date Driver Rating of 90.75 shows he's been competitive this season, but the lack of recent momentum might limit his chances this weekend.
Reddick has the potential to contend if he can find his rhythm, but he'll need a turnaround in performance to compete with the front-runners. Given his playoff position and historical strength at Las Vegas, Reddick still offers sleeper potential for fantasy players and bettors—though a mistake-free day will be critical for him to reach the top-5 or higher.
A Proven Winner Searching for Late-Season Relevance
Martin Truex Jr
- #19 Bass Pros Toyota
- Joe Gibbs Racing
Although Martin Truex Jr. isn't in the Playoffs this year, his experience and past success at Las Vegas make him a driver worth considering. A former winner at this track, Truex's average Driver Rating of 100.50 over the last 7 races shows he knows how to compete here, even if he hasn't been as dominant in recent events.
| 2021 | 2021 | 2022 | 2022 | 2023 | 2023 | 2024 | Avg Driver Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 103.40 | 99.10 | 105.50 | 87.00 | 105.60 | 90.30 | 112.60 | 102.64 |
Currently ranked 9th in the Accupredict model, Truex carries a 3.9% chance to win and a 52.2% chance to finish in the top-10. His current form across the last five races (excluding superspeedways) shows a 16.0 average finish with just one top-10. However, his momentum has improved slightly over the last three races, with a 12.0 average finish, including one top-5 and two top-15s.
Truex may not be a top contender this weekend, but his experience and ability to manage races make him a potential sleeper pick for a top-10 or better. While the lack of playoff pressure could work in his favor, he'll need to find more speed and consistency to keep up with the top-performing drivers in the field.
Driver Rating is just one metric to consider
Although one of the top metrics in the Accupredict algorithm - Driver Rating is not the only one to look at. Since Driver Rating falls under a 'historical statistic', winning in the Cup Series is closely tied to the current performance a driver is achieving. An extended practice session this weekend and qualifying should help you add additional value or takeaway from these four drivers.
Weekly NASCAR race previews that each highlight a key metric from the Accupredict projection algorithm. I uncover trends to help you gain an edge in NASCAR fantasy, DFS platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel, and sports wagering.
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