XFINITY Series

NASCAR XFINITY Series

Current Form ... Driver Momentum

Current Form vs Momentum? There is a clear distinction. While Momentum suggests a movement in a positive direction - a building of success - Current Form is a more neutral assessment.

Current form reflects a driver's recent performances, whether they're good, bad, or inconsistent. Unlike momentum, which carries connotations of inevitable progress, current form is a snapshot of where a driver or team stands at a given moment. For DFS players and bettors, this distinction is crucial. While momentum might be tempting to consider, current form offers a more reliable metric. It provides a clear, data-driven insight into a driver's recent performances without the emotional and psychological weight of momentum.

Momentum in NASCAR: Myth or Reality?

Momentum is a term that's deeply entrenched in sports culture, often invoked to explain shifts in performance, streaks of success, or even sudden downturns. But what exactly is momentum in the context of sports, and more specifically, in NASCAR? Is it a real, measurable phenomenon, or is it merely a psychological construct - a convenient narrative for fans, media, and even drivers to latch onto? Let's explore how momentum is perceived, its potential impact, and whether it holds any real value in the high-stakes world of NASCAR, particularly for Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) and betting enthusiasts.

Defining Momentum: Physics vs. Perception

In physics, momentum is a straightforward concept: the product of an object's mass and velocity. It's quantifiable and predictable. In sports, however, momentum takes on a much more abstract form. It's often used to describe a team's changing fortunes - a series of positive or negative outcomes that seem to build on each other. For example, a driver who strings together several top-5 finishes is said to have 'momentum,' suggesting that these performances are feeding into future success.

But is this momentum real, or is it a narrative construct? The answer isn't simple. In many ways, momentum in sports is more about perception than reality. It's a way to explain the unexplainable - a team's sudden resurgence, a driver's unexpected slump. It's a narrative tool that adds drama and intrigue to sport, even if its actual impact on outcomes is debatable.

Momentum in NASCAR: Race by Race, Week by Week

In NASCAR, momentum can be observed on two levels: within a race and across a season.

In-Race Momentum: During a race, momentum might be perceived when a driver gains confidence after a successful event, such as a strong qualifying lap, a quick pit stop, or overtaking a competitor. These moments can boost a driver's morale, potentially leading to more aggressive and successful maneuvers. However, whether this momentum is a cause of continued success or merely coincides with it is up for debate.

Week-to-Week Momentum: Over the course of a season, momentum is often discussed when a driver or team starts to perform consistently well over several races. For instance, a mid-pack team that suddenly strings together a series of top-10 finishes is often described as having momentum. This kind of sustained success can boost a team's confidence and drive, leading to better performance in subsequent races. But again, it's important to ask: is this momentum driving the performance, or is it just a narrative we apply after the fact?

The Role of Momentum in Confidence and Performance

One of the key reasons momentum is so widely believed in is its impact on confidence. Success breeds confidence, and confidence can, in turn, breed success. For a driver or team, a string of good performances can lead to a positive feedback loop where confidence is high, decisions are sharper, and execution is more precise.

Tony Stewart

Tony Stewart's performances in 2003 and 2005 offer classic examples. In 2003, Stewart had a lackluster average finish of 17.6 through the first 27 races. However, in the last nine races of the season, he averaged a finish of 5.5, including multiple top-3 finishes. Similarly, in 2005, after a slow start, Stewart's performance skyrocketed during the summer months, leading to a remarkable stretch where he averaged a 4th-place finish over 13 races. These performances are often cited as examples of momentum in action - where initial success led to a surge in confidence and subsequent dominance.

However, it's worth noting that confidence and momentum can be fragile. A single misstep - a crash, a mechanical failure - can disrupt the flow, leading to a sudden loss of this so-called momentum. This inconsistency is one of the reasons why critics argue that momentum is more about perception than reality.

Momentum: Placebo or Powerful Force?

Critics of the momentum concept liken it to a placebo effect. Just as a placebo can lead to real physiological changes simply because the person believes in its power, momentum can influence a driver or team's performance because they believe they have it. But the actual impact on outcomes is minimal. Data analysis often shows that momentum, as a predictive tool, doesn't significantly forecast future performance. In fact, relying too heavily on the idea of momentum can lead to overconfidence, which might result in strategic missteps or underestimating competitors.

Is Momentum a Valid Metric for DFS and Betting?

Given the debate around momentum, is it a valid metric to use in DFS and betting? The answer largely depends on how you interpret it. If you view momentum as a narrative tool - a way to explain past performance - it may not offer much predictive value. However, if you consider the psychological impact of momentum on confidence and decision-making, it could have some merit, particularly in short-term scenarios.

For example, a driver who's had a string of good finishes might be more confident, leading to more aggressive strategies or better execution on race day. But this is where the lines blur between momentum and current form. While momentum can suggest a continuation of success, current form provides the actual data to back up those assumptions.

In betting and DFS, relying solely on momentum can be risky. It's a qualitative factor, subject to interpretation and bias. Instead, combining an analysis of current form with other quantitative metrics (such as speed rankings, pit stop efficiency, and qualifying results) provides a more balanced approach. This way, you're not relying on momentum alone but considering it as part of a broader strategy.

Conclusion: Momentum - Myth, Reality, or Both?

Momentum in NASCAR is a complex and multifaceted concept. While it may not be a concrete, measurable phenomenon, its impact on confidence and psychology cannot be entirely dismissed. For fans, momentum adds drama and excitement to the sport. For drivers and teams, it can serve as a motivational tool, even if it's more about perception than reality. And for bettors and DFS players, while momentum might offer some insights, it's far from a reliable metric on its own.

In the end, momentum in NASCAR - and in sports in general - may be best understood as a blend of myth and reality. It's a story we tell ourselves to make sense of the unpredictable nature of competition, but it's a story that can sometimes influence the very outcomes we seek to explain.

10-race Driver Current Form

The number of wins, top-5 and top-10 finishes over last 10 races this season.

10-race Driver In-race Average Positions

Driver average in-race positions over last 10 races this season. Compare different positions by selecting it.

Filter drivers displayed in table.

Displaying All Drivers from the result set.

Displaying data from the last 10 races.

The races to include in the Momentum calculation. You can select or deselect races and update the results by clicking the 'Update Races Used' button.

Driver Momentum over the last 10 races.
DRIVER STARTS WIN RU T3 T5 T10 T15 T20 ST FIN AVG +/- AVG +/- MID CLO ARP GFP GFxP PD QPS FST LED LAPS
AJ Allmendinger 10 0 0 0 0 4 6 7 9.0 15.8 -6.8 -68 12.9 12.5 11.4 415 416 -1 292 53 39 1121
Aric Almirola 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 3.0 3.0 0.0 0 2.0 2.0 8.6 59 34 25 31 11 5 100
Boris Said 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 35.0 28.0 7.0 7 33.0 28.0 25.2 39 36 3 2 0 0 79
Joey Logano 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 16.5 23.0 -6.5 -13 24.0 24.0 24.1 17 40 -23 12 0 0 62
David Starr 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 34.0 22.3 11.7 35 27.0 23.0 27.8 49 48 1 1 0 0 503
Ryan Truex 2 1 0 1 1 1 1 2 20.0 10.0 10.0 20 10.5 10.0 10.7 219 202 17 163 0 28 192
Justin Allgaier 10 1 1 2 3 9 9 9 12.2 8.6 3.6 36 8.2 9.7 9.6 650 453 197 465 62 97 1290
Kyle Larson 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2.0 3.0 -1.0 -1 17.0 7.0 5.7 23 10 13 22 5 12 50
Parker Kligerman 10 0 0 1 2 5 9 10 14.6 9.5 5.1 51 13.6 11.9 12.2 581 464 117 374 5 0 1343
Alex Bowman 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 37.0 9.0 28.0 28 17.0 20.0 15.9 76 57 19 24 0 0 203
Brett Moffitt 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 29.0 18.0 11.0 11 4.0 21.0 14.1 77 58 19 36 8 0 252
Joey Gase 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 36.0 22.8 13.3 53 26.8 24.5 28.5 122 160 -38 4 2 0 556
Chase Elliott 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 16.0 4.0 12.0 12 13.0 7.0 11.6 34 32 2 25 0 0 150
Jeb Burton 10 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 19.6 20.2 -0.6 -6 17.4 21.4 20.3 582 541 41 256 2 0 1310
Matt DiBenedetto 10 0 0 0 0 2 2 5 25.1 19.6 5.5 55 24.6 20.7 23.1 461 481 -20 98 1 0 1316
BJ McLeod 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 33.0 28.0 5.0 5 35.0 9.0 29.3 38 56 -18 4 0 0 100
Jeffrey Earnhardt 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19.5 24.5 -5.0 -10 22.5 13.0 18.3 238 279 -41 131 0 0 227
Ryan Ellis 10 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 29.1 25.1 4.0 40 28.3 26.3 27.2 264 350 -86 19 0 0 1192
Daniel Suarez 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31.0 27.0 4.0 4 24.0 13.0 20.3 34 31 3 10 0 0 50
Ryan Sieg 10 0 0 0 1 2 7 10 14.7 12.4 2.3 23 17.7 15.2 14.5 660 539 121 348 25 23 1343
Ross Chastain 3 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 24.0 16.0 8.0 24 15.7 16.7 16.8 140 113 27 65 3 0 590
Kyle Weatherman 10 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 25.1 26.1 -1.0 -10 27.5 24.5 25.4 464 477 -13 117 3 0 1044
William Byron 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 6.0 3.0 3.0 3 1.0 3.0 8.4 65 85 -20 24 3 16 90
Brennan Poole 10 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 26.3 21.5 4.8 48 24.2 22.4 23.2 418 452 -34 38 2 0 1251
Cole Custer 10 1 2 4 4 7 7 8 8.0 11.2 -3.2 -32 9.2 11.6 10.3 417 381 36 257 94 250 1301
Chad Finchum 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36.0 33.5 2.5 5 34.0 34.0 32.5 54 44 10 9 2 0 326
Garrett Smithley 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 34.2 30.0 4.2 25 32.0 30.3 31.1 88 148 -60 2 0 1 959
Josh Bilicki 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 30.5 28.3 2.2 13 26.7 26.2 27.8 198 295 -97 16 0 0 443
Tyler Reddick 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 11.0 14.0 -3.0 -3 17.0 14.0 15.3 29 37 -8 22 0 0 188
John Hunter Nemechek 5 1 0 2 2 3 3 3 9.2 12.8 -3.6 -18 5.4 5.0 8.1 163 139 24 123 65 142 689
Christopher Bell 2 2 0 2 2 2 2 2 12.0 1.0 11.0 22 2.0 2.0 2.8 83 53 30 50 65 151 353
Alex Labbe 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 17.5 24.0 -6.5 -13 28.0 21.5 22.9 31 26 5 12 0 0 124
Austin Hill 10 0 0 0 2 6 6 7 8.8 14.1 -5.3 -53 10.2 13.9 11.6 398 348 50 238 22 32 1284
Brandon Jones 10 0 0 0 0 0 4 5 16.4 23.6 -7.2 -72 20.9 25.1 20.0 503 456 47 251 20 10 1016
Caesar Bacarella 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 21.0 19.0 2.0 4 32.5 21.0 28.7 116 119 -3 18 0 0 222
CJ McLaughlin 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 30.0 19.0 11.0 11 32.0 28.0 28.8 25 26 -1 0 1 0 102
Jeremy Clements 10 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 20.8 25.7 -4.9 -49 26.3 24.2 24.8 524 581 -57 124 12 7 1301
Joe Graf Jr 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 12.0 13.3 -1.3 -4 17.3 12.7 15.7 273 266 7 176 0 0 352
Josh Williams 10 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 23.8 21.7 2.1 21 17.4 21.3 19.9 598 618 -20 204 2 4 1294
Noah Gragson 3 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 16.0 8.7 7.3 22 9.0 8.7 10.4 168 136 32 101 16 0 466
Riley Herbst 10 1 1 2 3 5 7 7 9.8 14.6 -4.8 -48 17.3 14.8 15.1 550 519 31 348 35 42 1239
Mason Massey 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31.0 30.0 1.0 2 34.0 26.5 29.3 76 86 -10 0 0 0 292
Anthony Alfredo 10 0 0 0 1 1 3 4 14.4 21.9 -7.5 -75 16.6 19.9 17.8 562 568 -6 291 14 0 1318
Patrick Emerling 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 29.8 28.2 1.7 10 31.2 27.7 29.3 205 289 -84 3 2 0 951
Preston Pardus 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20.5 28.5 -8.0 -16 28.0 26.0 24.9 52 61 -9 4 0 0 117
Sheldon Creed 10 0 3 4 7 8 8 8 9.1 9.0 0.1 1 7.2 6.1 8.7 515 552 -37 356 54 61 1340
Jordan Anderson 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 25.0 6.0 19.0 19 13.0 13.0 20.3 155 157 -2 52 5 0 102
Josh Berry 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12.0 32.5 -20.5 -41 35.5 31.0 34.0 40 42 -2 3 0 0 90
Ty Gibbs 3 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2.3 19.0 -16.7 -50 5.0 19.3 9.4 56 46 10 27 42 74 288
Blaine Perkins 10 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 28.5 27.4 1.1 11 29.1 27.6 29.1 360 458 -98 79 3 0 1137
Kyle Sieg 10 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 29.0 22.9 6.1 61 26.2 23.1 23.9 429 487 -58 48 1 0 1338
Sam Mayer 10 1 0 2 2 4 5 7 11.3 17.8 -6.5 -65 15.4 17.9 16.2 443 526 -83 208 56 74 1163
Dawson Cram 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 34.0 32.3 1.7 5 33.7 33.3 32.6 23 36 -13 0 0 0 436
Sage Karam 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 38.0 33.0 5.0 5 30.0 33.0 32.3 13 8 5 0 0 0 37
Akinori Ogata 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 32.0 38.0 -6.0 -6 38.0 38.0 38.0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Tim Viens 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 37.0 35.0 2.0 2 35.0 35.0 34.3 0 7 -7 0 0 0 15
Gus Dean 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 27.0 36.0 -9.0 -9 36.0 36.0 35.9 1 3 -2 0 0 0 4
Chandler Smith 10 0 2 2 2 5 7 7 6.5 15.5 -9.0 -90 12.0 15.3 13.5 482 497 -15 361 88 147 1284
Conor Daly 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 16.0 14.0 2.0 2 12.0 10.0 13.5 49 40 9 35 0 0 100
Hailie Deegan 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 32.8 29.5 3.3 13 27.8 30.3 31.7 82 118 -36 2 0 0 710
Corey Heim 4 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 16.5 13.5 3.0 12 10.8 16.8 13.2 253 244 9 145 19 0 696
Lawless Alan 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15.0 35.0 -20.0 -20 16.0 35.0 25.0 36 44 -8 19 1 0 65
Logan Bearden 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36.0 28.5 7.5 15 32.5 29.5 33.2 33 59 -26 0 0 0 313
Armani Williams 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36.0 34.0 2.0 2 36.0 36.0 35.8 10 10 0 0 0 0 198
Taylor Gray 2 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 3.5 6.5 -3.0 -6 15.0 8.0 13.0 129 108 21 74 9 0 218
Parker Retzlaff 10 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 16.6 27.8 -11.2 -112 23.0 27.6 23.2 363 427 -64 65 2 0 1110
Brad Perez 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30.0 24.0 6.0 6 31.0 23.0 26.0 34 30 4 0 0 0 79
Connor Mosack 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 3.0 6.0 -3.0 -3 18.0 8.0 7.3 16 7 9 12 1 0 50
Sammy Smith 10 0 0 0 3 4 6 7 13.8 15.2 -1.4 -14 9.4 17.2 14.2 524 473 51 300 21 5 1334
Stephen Mallozzi 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 38.0 35.0 3.0 3 35.0 35.0 32.7 25 17 8 0 0 0 68
Leland Honeyman Jr 10 0 0 0 0 1 3 4 25.3 22.5 2.8 28 27.8 24.4 25.9 415 422 -7 36 6 0 1227
Daniel Dye 4 0 0 0 0 2 2 3 25.8 17.0 8.8 35 19.0 19.3 19.7 245 207 38 73 5 0 509
Ed Jones 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 17.0 15.0 2.0 2 27.0 14.0 23.6 40 33 7 4 0 0 79
Jesse Love 10 0 0 1 2 3 6 6 14.7 15.5 -0.8 -8 11.1 16.1 13.8 552 585 -33 307 19 25 1238
Andre Castro 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 33.0 35.0 -2.0 -2 16.0 35.0 31.2 14 27 -13 0 0 0 34
Shane van Gisbergen 10 2 0 2 3 4 5 7 17.7 15.4 2.3 23 19.4 14.8 17.3 510 400 110 139 36 46 1175
Greg Van Alst 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 37.5 30.5 7.0 14 29.5 29.5 30.8 30 40 -10 0 0 0 240
Carson Kvapil 5 0 0 0 1 2 4 4 22.0 13.4 8.6 43 11.8 11.8 13.8 291 249 42 108 14 49 769
Austin Green 2 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 20.5 7.0 13.5 27 16.5 8.0 13.3 42 69 -27 16 1 0 129
Nathan Byrd 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26.0 37.0 -11.0 -11 33.0 35.0 34.6 13 40 -27 0 0 0 185
Thomas Annunziata 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31.5 31.0 0.5 1 32.5 30.5 28.6 80 64 16 0 0 0 153
Glen Reen 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36.5 33.5 3.0 6 33.0 34.0 33.2 52 58 -6 3 0 0 223
Justin Bonsignore 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25.0 23.0 2.0 2 5.0 27.0 9.5 65 48 17 32 10 3 203