NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 MARTINSVILLE, GOODY’S HEADACHE RELIEF SHOT 500

Now that the stress and excitement of a playoff restrictor plate track race is over, NASCAR has its last short track of the season at Martinsville Speedway. From a Fantasy Live perspective, your goal should be to capture the laps led statistic this week due to the extra laps. My recommendation would be to front-load your lineup with the three drivers who are still Chase eligible. The bottom two spots should be the two best available budget options.

If you are behind in the standings, this is a good opportunity to swing for the fences. If an under-the-radar driver dominates the race, then you can shoot up the standings. If you are near the top of the standings, I would recommend taking the more conservative lineup below.

Since the playoffs have started, there is no driver with more momentum than Joey Logano. Through 31 races in 2015, Logano’s average finish position of 7.9 is the best of any driver. Earlier this season at Martinsville, Logano led 108 laps on his way to a 3rd place finish. With three top-10 finishes over the last five races at the track, the #22 team will likely stay competitive this week. Logano has seen success on flat tracks this season. In nine races for this track type, Logano has enjoyed seven top-5 finishes and the 2nd most laps led of any driver on flat tracks this season. My only concern with Logano is that he may have lost some friends after spinning Kenseth at Kansas, but this is not enough of a reason to keep him off of my roster.

The next roster recommendation has been a consistent choice on my roster this season. Kevin Harvick has 20 top-5 finishes already in 2015. Over the recent weeks, he seems to be running in the top-5, but is not claiming the same laps led and fast lap points that he earned earlier this season. In the March race, Harvick led 154 laps on his way to a 7th place finish. Over the last five Martinsville races, Harvick has three top-10 finishes and a 13th place average finish position. Harvick has led 772 laps in nine flat track races this season, good for the most in the series. I do not know if Harvick will be the driver who takes the checker this week, but I think he will be near the front and not harm my roster. After a controversial Talladega finish, I expect the #4 team to be have a high chance for fantasy relevance this week.

Originally, I had Denny Hamlin as the third option due to his victory earlier this year. Instead, I want a Chase eligible driver for the third spot. About half-way through the season, I decided not to put Jeff Gordon on my roster in every circumstance. Now, he has advanced to the playoffs, and Martinsville is one of his best tracks. Gordon has a 5th place average finish position over his last five races at the tracking, including earning one grandfather clock during this time span. Earlier this year, he finished a modest 9th place. Although he only maintains a 15th place average in 2015 races, Gordon has an excellent chance for success this week.

With a front-loaded lineup, there was limited cap space for the final two spots. David Ragan finished 5th in the March race with Kyle Busch’s equipment. He maintains a 23rd place average finish position over the last five Martinsville races. His average finish position at flat racks is better than other track types. Ragan should outperform his value this week. Tentatively, the 5th roster spot is set for Matt DiBenedetto. Although he only finished in 31st earlier this season, his team usually performs adequately enough not to damage your roster spot. In the 28 races he started in 2015, DiBenedetto has a 31st place average. As always, make sure to watch qualifying to determine which budget options to use. I would recommend chasing after a driver who can get start-to-finish differential. There should be some close racing this week. A driver who qualifies 43rd can benefit from the DNFs that are likely to accommodate the race.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from starting the five best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula first calculates the average number of points earned by each driver over the last five Martinsville races. Next, we divide that number by the Fantasy Live salary cap figure to determine which drivers provide value. I have a tendency to avoid drivers who are eliminated from the Chase. For this reason, I will not have Jimmie Johnson on my roster. However, he has the most Fantasy Live points of any driver at Martinsville. We will use his numbers to further illustrate our formula.

JIMMIE JOHNSON AT MARTINSVILLE

  • Average finish position last five Martinsville races: 15th equals 29 Fantasy Live points
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative 11.2 equals (-11.2) Fantasy Live points
  • Laps led: 765 equals 76.5 Fantasy Live points
  • Fast laps: 239 equals 23.9 Fantasy Live points
  • Total Fantasy Live points earned by race: 118.2
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $24.75
  • Fantasy Live points per dollar: 118.2 divided by $24.75 equals 4.78 points per dollar

Below you will find the Fantasy Live points per driver for each driver in Martinsville. Make sure to front-load your lineup this week and set your lineups after qualifying.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 4.78
  • Jeff Gordon 3.36
  • Matt Kenseth 3.24
  • Denny Hamlin 2.57
  • Kevin Harvick 2.26
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2.03
  • Joey Logano 1.99
  • Kyle Busch 1.71
  • Carl Edwards 1.15
  • Kurt Busch 1.14
  • Brad Keselowski 1.10

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Clint Bowyer 3.10
  • Aric Almirola 1.76
  • Jamie McMurray 1.57
  • Kasey Kahne 1.54
  • Paul Menard 1.28
  • Martin Truex Jr. 0.76
  • Ryan Newman 0.40
  • Kyle Larson 0.11

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Greg Biffle 2.31
  • Austin Dillon 1.58
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 1.16

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Trevor Bayne 3.02
  • Tony Stewart 2.47
  • Danica Patrick 2.50
  • Cole Whitt 2.30
  • Casey Mears 1.94
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.53
  • Justin Allgaier 1.43
  • Ricky Stenhouse 0.49

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Kyle Fowler 6.00
  • JJ Yeley 3.89
  • Jeb Burton 3.60
  • Landon Cassill 3.46
  • Matt DiBenedetto 3.33
  • Michael Annett 3.31
  • Alex Kennedy 3.17
  • Brett Moffitt 3.00
  • David Gilliland 2.97
  • David Ragan 2.01
  • Alex Bowman 1.13
  • Timmy Hill 0.21

One thought on “NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 MARTINSVILLE, GOODY’S HEADACHE RELIEF SHOT 500

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *