NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Daytona, Coke Zero 400

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Daytona

After a Kentucky race that made you ecstatic if you started Brad Keselowski, we travel south for the holiday weekend to Daytona. Daytona is one of the most exciting tracks of the season and will make you want to tear your hair out in Fantasy NASCAR. With restrictor plates, big crashes, and unpredictable results, the end result is that choosing a successful lineup has more to do with luck than skill. The good news is that there are plenty of low cost options with the ability to finish in the top twenty. This week provides a great opportunity to gain or lose on your opponents.

The driver with the most fantasy live points over the course of the last five summer races is Tony Stewart. Stewart started the 2014 season slowly, but has improved as the summer races began. Stewart has led the most laps of any driver since 2008. He also averages an eighth place finish in the same period of time. Stewart has a high probability to run near the top this week.

After Stewart, there are six drivers who have averaged a thirteenth place finish or better over the last five years. Who you choose from this pack of driver should be determined by your personal preference because little separates these drivers statistically. The drivers in this second group include Kevin Harvick, Kasey Kahne, Matt Kenseth, Kurt Busch, Ricky Stenhouse, and Brian Vickers.

Using the process of elimination, we can trim down this second group of drivers. Kasey Kahne and Brian Vickers have not led a lap in five years, and I cannot recommend drivers who have led fewer laps than Joe Nemecheck at Daytona. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. finished in 11th place last year, and I cannot recommend him because of the small sample at the track.

Because of the salary cap restrictions, we can only choose two of the three remaining drivers for our roster. Matt Kenseth has led 107 laps over the last five races, second only to Stewart. He has also led a lap in four of the five races showing consistency. With a 12th place average since 2003, Kenseth proves to be a solid option.

There is little to separate Harvick from Kurt Busch. Harvick has led a few more laps and has won two races in 2014, but I would recommend Kurt Busch over Harvick due to Kurt Busch’s lower salary cap figure. Kurt Busch has the second-best average of any driver over the past ten summer races at Daytona.

With a 14th place finish last year at Daytona and a history of providing value on restrictor plate tracks, Danica Patrick is my fourth choice for this week’s roster. Patrick has shown improvement over the course of 2014, and she will be worth picking if she continues the trend. With only $10.75 remaining for the fifth driver, the last pick goes to David Ragan, who is an overachiever at Daytona and Talladega. Ragan has averaged a 20th place finish over the last five summer races, and I am glad there was enough salary cap money left over for Ragan. I like Michael Waltrip and the Labontes as fantasy live options this week and could be used depending on how you manage this week’s lineup.

Our salary cap value formula basically determines average total number of fantasy live points over the past five summer Daytona races and divides that total by the salary cap figure provided by fantasy live on nascar.com. We can then determine how many points to expect from each fantasy dollar.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

The Fantasy Live scoring system is a combination of laps led, fast laps, finish position, and start-to-finish differential.

For additional clarification on our formula, please review Kevin Harvick’s details below.

KEVIN HARVICK AT DAYTONA

  • Total laps led at the last five summer Daytona races: 44 (8.80 per race = 4.40 points)
  • Fast laps: cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
  • Final position: 12th place average = 32 points
  • Start to finish differential: Plus seven = 7 points
  • Total points per race: 43.40
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $27.25
  • Points ranking: 43.4/$23.75= 1.59 points per fantasy dollar

For rookies with no history at the track, we will use the data from the 2014 to help you know how many points to expect from each fantasy dollar. You will notice that there is more value picks than average. This week’s picks are in bold along with the fantasy points-per-dollar for all drivers.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Kevin Harvick 1.59
  • Matt Kenseth 1.38
  • Kasey Kahne 1.23
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.15
  • Kyle Busch 1.04
  • Joey Logano 1.04
  • Brad Keselowski 1.01
  • Jimmie Johnson 0.88
  • Carl Edwards 0.86
  • Jeff Gordon 0.66
  • Clint Bowyer 0.51

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Tony Stewart 2.40
  • Brian Vickers 2.02
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.65
  • Kurt Busch 1.62
  • Denny Hamlin 1.44
  • Jamie McMurray 1.40
  • Austin Dillon 1.40
  • Greg Biffle 1.36
  • Aric Almirola 1.26
  • Ryan Newman 1.15
  • Kyle Larson 1.13
  • Marcus Ambrose 0.87
  • Paul Menard 0.84
  • Martin Truex Jr. 0.15

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Danica Patrick 1.77
  • Justin Allgaier 1.35
  • Casey Mears 1.14
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.03

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Bobby Labonte 3.70
  • David Ragan 3.00
  • Michael Waltrip 2.58
  • David Gilliland 2.18
  • Cole Whitt 1.62
  • Trevor Bayne (-0.16)

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Terry Labonte 4.90
  • Reed Sorenson 3.85
  • Landon Cassill 3.20
  • Josh Wise 2.04
  • Michael Annett 1.95
  • Joe Nemecheck 1.31
  • Ryan Truex 0.78
  • Michael McDowell (-2.00)

One thought on “NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Daytona, Coke Zero 400

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *