NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Charlotte Motor Speedway, Coca-Cola 600

2014 NASCAR Brad Keselowski Coca-Cola 600

After taking a week off in Fantasy NASCAR due to the All-Star race, the action returns to Charlotte Motor Speedway on Memorial Day weekend.

Fantasy NASCAR players are generally hoping that this week’s race is as predictable as Kansas, where most of the top drivers performed as expected. Many of the top drivers have a history of success at the Charlotte and we could see high point totals this week.

Nascar.com Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format for its fantasy league. In order to prevent players from choosing the top drivers every week, the website provides a $100 salary cap. The scoring format combines point totals from start position to finish position differential, laps led, fast laps, and final position.

This article looks at the total points for the last five Charlotte spring races, and divides that number by the league salary cap figure. This final number shows the amount of points to expect per salary cap dollar for every driver.

Please note that fast laps cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy. For additional clarification, see the details for Kasey Kahne in Charlotte.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

NASCAR.com fantasy rankings use a salary cap formula that limits the quality of drivers than you can pick each week. The point total combines the laps led, fast laps, differential between start and finish, and final standings to determine the winner. The formula used in this article uses the total points earned by a driver divided by his or her salary cap figure. The end result is a number that determines the total number of points to expect for each fantasy dollar.

Though fast laps information is available, the fast lap data is not used for this article because the data cannot be calculated into the salary cap point format with 100% accuracy.

KASEY KAHNE AT CHARLOTTE

Kasey Kahne’s data from this week can help provide you with a clearer picture on how this formula works below.

  • Average starting position to finish position differential at Charlotte: (-1)
  • Combined spring Charlotte laps led last five years: 285 (57 laps per race)
  • Average laps led fantasy points per race: 28.5
  • Average finish position last five years: 8th (36 points)
  • Average points per race last five years: 63.5
  • Salary Cap Figure per Fantasy Live: $25.25
  • Points per fantasy dollar: 2.52

Kahne has struggled for most of 2014, but Charlotte is his best track. With an average finish of 8.8 over the last five years, Kahne is the most consistent driver. His car looked excellent in the All-Star race. His points-per-fantasy-dollar number of 2.52 is second only to Kurt Busch.

HIGH-RISK & HIGH-REWARD

Both of the Busch brothers are high-risk, high-reward picks.

Kurt Busch runs well in Charlotte, but he will be driving 500 miles at Indianapolis and flying to Charlotte before a long race. Kyle Busch has led the most laps in spring Charlotte races over the last five years. He is also the only driver to lead laps in all five races.

Because NASCAR.com Fantasy Live is weighted towards laps led, you can benefit from choosing Kyle Busch. The drawback to this pick is that Kyle Busch only has an average finish of 24th over the last three spring races.

I am taking a risk and picking both Busch brothers.

NOT STRONG DATA…BUT A HUNCH

A couple of drivers have a chance to succeed even if the data does not completely support picking them. Kevin Harvick has had a dominant car and won two of the last three spring races. Though his team has been consistent lately, Harvick has not led a bunch of laps in either victory.

Jamie McMurray won the All-Star race and could be at the top even if the historical numbers are average.

Joey Logano has been on fire lately and drives well in Charlotte.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Kurt Busch 2.58
  • Kasey Kahne 2.52
  • Kyle Busch 2.16
  • Carl Edwards 1.81
  • Kevin Harvick 1.61
  • Joey Logano 1.59
  • Matt Kenseth 1.49
  • Brad Keselowski 1.02
  • Jeff Gordon 0.99
  • Clint Bowyer 0.94
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 0.74
  • Jimmie Johnson 0.30

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.75)

  • Greg Biffle 1.93
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.86
  • Brian Vickers 1.70
  • Denny Hamlin 1.65
  • Tony Stewart 1.54
  • Jamie McMurray 1.51
  • Kyle Larson 1.35
  • Austin Dillon 1.35
  • Ryan Newman 1.24
  • Marcose Ambrose 1.12
  • Martin Truex Jr. 0.90
  • Aric Almirola 0.25

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.75)

  • AJ Allmendinger 1.08
  • Justin Allgaier 1.11
  • Danica Patrick 1.00
  • Casey Mears 0.96

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.50)

  • David Ragan 2.74
  • Trevor Bayne 1.92
  • David Gilliland 1.70

GROUP E ($9.75 or lower)

  • Reed Sorenson 2.22
  • Landon Cassill 2.00
  • Josh Wise 1.68
  • Cole Whitt 1.41
  • Michael Annett 1.10
  • Joe Nemecheck (-0.78)

MY RECOMMENDED STARTERS FOR CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY

  1. Kasey Kahne $25.25
  2. Kurt Busch $23.75
  3. Kyle Busch $27.50
  4. David Ragan $10.50
  5. Trevor Bayne $10.25

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