2019 Texas Motor Speedway, AAA Texas 500

Congratulations to Martin Truex Jr. for winning the race at Martinsville this past weekend and becoming the first driver to be qualified for the championship race. He won in dominating fashion leading 464 of the 500 laps run in that race and now he can relax a bit over the next two weeks if he wants to. Chase Elliott on the other hand had major mechanical issues and now finds himself in almost a must win situation over the next two weeks if he wants to make the championship race himself.

AAA TEXAS 500

This week the series heads to the Texas Motor Speedway for the running of the AAA Texas 500. This is another of the intermediate tracks and will be the most similar track to Homestead where the final race of the year will be run. That means this could be a real test for the drivers who are going to be heading to Homestead with a shot to win a championship and now Martin can do some serious testing this week while the others are still in a battle to make that race in contention yet.

Kevin Harvick: I’m picking Kevin to win this race and get himself qualified for the championship race without having to worry about winning at Phoenix. He has six top three finishes in his last ten starts including two wins and three runner-up finishes. He came on strong late in the year on this type of track and won this race the past two seasons. He would like nothing more than to make it three in a row and take the pressure off of himself until the final race of the season.

Erik Jones: Erik has struggled a bit since the playoffs started, but he has finished fourth here in each of his last three starts. This team is working on getting ready for next season and this is one of those tracks where he can gain a little confidence and feel good about himself and his team heading into the off season. I look for him to have a good run this weekend.

Joey Logano: We saw how dominant Joey was at Michigan earlier this year and even though that is a 2-mile track and this is a mile and a half he usually runs well here. In face he has finished in the top three at Texas in four of his last seven starts and that should give this team a lot of confidence heading into this weekend. If another playoff driver wins this week that will mean only one or two of the eight drivers would make the championship race on points and no one wants to go to Phoenix wondering if they need to win.

Chase Elliott: As I mentioned earlier, Chase had a major mechanical failure at Martinsville and now finds himself in an almost must win situation in the next two races. The good news is that in seven career starts at Texas Chase has never finished worse than thirteenth. The bad news is that his best finish has been a fourth place finish. He will need to run well and gain as many points as he can during each of the stages to try and get himself closer if he can’t come away with the win this weekend.

William Byron: William had a great run at Martinsville last weekend coming away with a second place finish. Also on his side this weekend is the fact that he has only run three races at Texas and finished in the top ten in two of them. He finished sixth here in March and lead fifteen laps in that race. I think this teams confidence is going to be sky high this week and we know that Chad Knaus can set up the car to win here.

Ryan Blaney: Ryan also had a great run at Martinsville last weekend and he finished second in this race last season. He knows he might need to win a race to make the championship and we have seen how fast the Penske teams have been all season. I think Ryan just needs to be a little patient early in the race this week and keep relaying good information to his crew chief to get the car handling to his liking late in the race and then go for broke.

Kyle Busch: Kyle has finished in the top five here in six of his last ten starts including two wins. This team has struggled quite a bit in terms of how they are used to running over the past few months and they can’t afford to have any type of trouble in the pits or on the track. Aric Almirola said he was going to make life difficult for Kyle on the track for the rest of the season and that might come into play here.

Martin Truex Jr.: Martin is still looking for his first Texas win in his career, but he has finished in the top ten here in seven of his last nine races.That includes a second place finish in this race two years ago. This team looks like they will be the odds on favorite to win the championship right now no matter who else qualifies. They have been great on the track and in the pits throughout the playoffs and that momentum should keep carrying them.

Denny Hamlin: Denny won the race here in March and is a bit disappointed to say the least in his finishing position at Martinsville in a race he thinks he should have won. Add to that the fact that he isn’t real happy with the Penske drivers and they are not real happy with him right now might make for some more excitement on the track this week. I think tempers are going to be short all around over the next three weeks.

Kurt Busch: Kurt is on a streak of five straight top ten finishes at Texas. I’m not real confident in him on the intermediate tracks right now and will be saving my final start for his for the Phoenix race. If you have more than one start left with him you should put him on your roster this week and see how he does in practice and qualifying and then decide if you want to take a chance on him this week.

DRIVER GROUP GAME FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR TEXAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Driver Group Game Group A

  • Kevin Harvick
  • Joey Logano

Driver Group Game Group B

  • Ryan Blaney
  • Erik Jones
  • William Byron
  • Aric Almirola

Driver Group Game Group C

  • Chris Buescher
  • Daniel Hemric

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT TEXAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Joey Logano
  3. Denny Hamlin
  4. Ryan Blaney
  5. Martin Truex Jr.

Dark Horse: William Byron

Stay Away From: Ryan Newman

Big 18: William Byron

74 thoughts on “2019 Texas Motor Speedway, AAA Texas 500

  1. I understand your comment about Kurt Busch. I’m not sure what you mean about Denny Hamlin. You have him number 3rd overall but it sounds like you think he might be involved in a wreck over retaliation?

    1. Him and the Penske drivers aren’t seeing eye to eye right now. Any type of incident would probably result in some sort of retaliation.

    1. Bowman has been running well lately on this type of track. Johnson hasn’t run well on this type of track all year and I don’t see that changing.

      1. Thx! Bowman Newman I’m struggling which to pick. STENHOUSE I’m always cautious about because of his temper on the track

      2. Johnson won the pole for the last race here at Texas and lead 60 laps with a 6th place finish,and has been a beast at Texas over his career,I would say that I feel better using the 48 over the 88!!!!!

    1. Bowman has never finished in the top ten here and Almirola has in each of his last 2 races. Go with Busch this week and next.

  2. Hi Jeff, in one group I have the 24, 37 and 38 with 1 pick left each. I really want to take the 24 but want to see if I’m better to save him for either Miami or Phoenix. Let me know your thoughts.. Thank you

    1. I would use Byron at Phoenix and then take your chances on the other 2 at the intermediate tracks. Ragan is going to be the tough choice on when to use him.

  3. Im in 4th in my pool and looking for some advice in my B group.

    Which two would you go with:

    Jones, Blaney, Kurt, or Byron?

        1. If you can use Kurt for more than just this race you can start him this week. Otherwise I would save him for Phoenix.

          1. Ok sounds good. Usage is not an issue. Thanks for all the advice this season. Its the best season i have ever had!

  4. Harvick Byron STENHOUSE McDowell Logano Dillion bowman T Dillon are my picks
    Please advise as to who you would start!
    Thanks 🙏 🏁

  5. I have E Jones, Almirola, Hamlin, Bowyer. Should I save Hamlin for Phoenix/Homestead with Jones/Almirola looking like solid top 5-10 cars this week? If you’d use Hamlin, rank Almirola/E Jones (or Bowyer). Thank you.

    1. I would go with Jones and Almirola this week. See if Hamlin needs to win next week or if he can make it on points and then decide where to use him.

      1. Thanks Jeff… Have Hamlin 2 more starts for the year. I agree though, given how dominant he is on the B list it’s best long term to use 2 very serviceable options today and close out the year with Hamlin going for a championship.

  6. Jeff you are the man and always on point. In second place and need a good finish. My final pic is between Stenhouse Matt Benedetto and Bowman I need two of three. What say you my friend?

    1. I play differently but was wondering what 2 out of the these three would you pick today to do best Byron , Johnson, Jones ? Thanks

  7. Pick one for most total points at Texas. Kurt Busch, Eric Jones, Almirola, or a Hendrick driver. Pretty sure saving Kyle Busch and Truex for last 2 races.

  8. I’m out of Harvick, Hamlin and a few others…so went with Truex, Blaney, Byron, Preece for starters
    and Kyle B., Almirola, Jones and Hemric on the bench. Any thoughts?

      1. Thanks so much and I’d like to take a moment and thank you for your analysis and thoughts every week. Reading your blog and taking your advice I won the 1st half of the season, currently only 5 points back in the chase and over 160 points on top for the over all season. I’ve come to rely on your thoughts and thoroughly enjoy reading your blog every week.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *