2018 Homestead-Miami Speedway, Ford EcoBoost 400

We’re all set for championship weekend unless there is some major points penalty handed out by NASCAR this week. The ‘Big Three’ will be joined by Joey Logano in a best finisher take all race. There are two Ford’s and two Toyota’s among these drivers and four different teams being represented.

I want to thank all of you loyal readers for following me once again this year and as always, I hope I helped some of you a bit in your leagues and made watching the races a little more exciting. I will caution you that the drivers I think will finish in the top five this week might not be on my DGG roster because I have used up all of their starts. I think the best thing to do this week is use the best drivers you have left and let the chips fall where they may.

FORD ECOBOOST 400

This is championship week for NASCAR and all three series will crown their champions at the Homestead-Miami Speedway. This is a mile and a half track with progressive banking in the corners and I think the Big Three are your top three favorites here. The question is who will stay mistake free, mechanical issue free, and make the right calls during the race to be crowned the champion of the 2018 season.

Kevin Harvick: I am going to pick Kevin Harvick to win the race and the championship this year. He has been fast all season long and is the driver with the most wins on this type of track this year. I just think that the Ford’s have shown their speed all year and Kevin is the better driver between him and Joey Logano who are the two drivers with Ford’s in the championship group.

Kyle Busch: I think Kyle will finish right behind Kevin and make it a tight race right to the end. In my opinion he is the best driver out of the championship four, but I just don’t think he will have quite the speed or handling that Kevin has had all season. He is going to do everything he can to stay close and give Kevin a run for his money, but in the end I just don’t think he will have enough car.

Martin Truex Jr.: I think Martin sticks with the top two for most of the race and could pull off the second championship of his career if the other two falter somewhere along the way. Like I said, all of these drivers have to stay mistake free on pit road to stay in contention. They can’t afford penalties or loose wheels. A mistake like this is disaster when you have to beat the best in a one race playoff.

Joey Logano: Let’s not count Joey out though. For one thing, he is in a Ford which as I have said before have shown the most speed all year. He won two races this year. His teammates have each won multiple races this season and on this type of track. The thing I worry about with him and his team is that they often seem to lose the handling on their car as races progress and he also doesn’t have friends all over the track.

Kyle Larson: Kyle has led more laps than any other driver in his last two starts at Homestead. He looked really good last week at Phoenix and could pull off his first win of the season as he likes to run the high line and this is one of those tracks where it can really pay dividends. Definitely worth a shot if you are trying to make up some ground in your league or don’t have any of the Big Three left to run.

Chase Elliott: Chase looked like he had a shot at picking up the win at Phoenix and making the championship race for a while last week as he had the fastest car on the track as he made his way to the front. However, that was not to be as an ill timed caution moved him back in the field and then he got caught up in a wreck late in the race that took him out of contention. He did finish fifth in this race last year and has been good at the end of this season.

Denny Hamlin: Denny has qualified well in some races this year and then never really had the handling on his car that he needed to stay up front. He sat on the pole here in two of his last three starts and finished ninth in each of his last two starts here. I just don’t have faith in him being someone I want to start this week and he might get a little payback from Kurt Busch this week.

Austin Dillon: Austin has been running very well towards the end of this season and is someone you can have on your roster if you have used up some of the better drivers. He has finished in the top fifteen in each of his last three starts here. He might not have the speed he needs to run up front, but he could pull off a top ten finish this week.

Erik Jones: This is another driver who has really been running well since winning a race at Talladega earlier this year. This is also the kind of track where he has really shown a lot of poise and could pull off another win if everything falls into place for him again this week. He has a ton of potential and is going to be one of the stars in this series sooner rather than later.

Ryan Blaney: Ryan has shown a lot of speed all year and he has also shown that he can run towards the front no matter what kind of track he is racing on. This is the type of track where he can be at his best. He seems to have a little problem with patience once in a while, but this is one of those tracks with multiple grooves, so he should be able to move to different grooves to make passes this weekend.

DRIVER GROUP GAME FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR HOMESTEAD-MIAMI SPEEDWAY

Driver Group Game Group A

  • Martin Truex Jr.
  • Kyle Larson

Driver Group Game Group B

  • Chase Elliott
  • Ryan Blaney
  • Aric Almirola
  • Erik Jones

Driver Group Game Group C

  • Chris Buescher
  • Michael McDowell

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT HOMESTEAD-MIAMI SPEEDWAY

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Kyle Busch
  3. Martin Truex Jr.
  4. Kyle Larson
  5. Chase Elliott

Dark Horse: Austin Dillon

Stay Away From: Clint Bowyer

Big 18: Alex Bowman

67 thoughts on “2018 Homestead-Miami Speedway, Ford EcoBoost 400

    1. IMO, He hasn’t run the best at the 1.5 miles tracks this year. Texas was good to him 10th place Week 7 and a 16th place Week 34, Now, even after all of the being said, if I had a start with him I’d have him in my lineup along with Chris Buescher.

    2. If I don’t have Bowman left, he is probably the best option. Like DIIK said. Buescher is another possibility and I have him on my roster this week.

    1. Wildfire there are 11,245 total players.

      To find out yourself (if you’ve been playing) you can go to the page listed as My Dashboard. When on the page you’ll notice MY GAME SCOREBOARD. Your Points throughout the season will be in dark blue and your Ranking will be in light blue. In the light blue at the top you will see the amount of total players.

        1. Jeff, why not 31 over 88? Statistically, he appears much better suited for this track. As does the 1 car. Strictly for a Big 18 pick with little left to choose from.
          First year on your site. Great incite and information. Learned a lot for only my 2nd year following NASCAR. Thanks.

  1. Got a slim lead in my home league heading into the final race here. We pick any 5 drivers each race and include stage points and finishing points in the total points standings. I think 4, 18, 78 are obvious (no?) then leaning 42 and then either 2 or 22. Thoughts? I’m assuming they are going to do stages for this race too right?

    1. They should be still using stage points. Don’t know why, but this will be it…Stage 1 ends at Lap 80; Stage 2 ends at Lap 160; Final stage ends at Lap 267.

      As for your picks I too would use the 4, 18 and the 78. Then it’s a toss up because they all ran well this year on the 1.5-miles. IMO, the Fords will have the speed, but I’d lean towards the 22 and the 42.

      Best of luck and again, I cannot wait for Jeff’s input.

  2. The only drivers I have left are: #17, 21, 3, 19, 47. I know they have no chance of winning, but who do you think can get the most points at Homestead?

  3. Hi I want to thank you 😊 you have helped me in the last two years win my driving pool I’m second this year with the last race 🏁 coming I’m 22 points out of being first. Couldn’t have done it without you.

  4. I have enjoyed reading your advice all season. I am in a league with 65 participants. We pick our top 5 every week and roll with it-use same scoring as the Series. Only thing is we can’t use the same lineup 3 weeks in a row. Anyway, following your advice I have been in the top 10 all season. I’m in 4th heading into this weekend. Thank and hope you are back next year!

  5. 32nd overall in DGG and appreciate your weekly writeup and advice.
    Whether I went with your suggestions or not, your input was invaluable answering my questions as well as others. Hope you continue your weekly preview .

    No chance of winning but I want to finish as strong as possible.

    No starts w busch or harvick. Going Truex and either Logano or Larson

    Busch, Almirola, Blaney and Jones out. Thinking Elliott, Newman, McMurray and Kenseth or Bowyer.

    Bowman and Byron out. Going Buescher and Ragan.

    Your thoughts?

    1. Truex and Larson
      Stay away from Kenseth for sure. I would probably use Bowyer instead of McMurray
      Buescher is my starter this week in C.

  6. Thank you all for your kind words. I don’t do this for me, I do it for you and I am glad I can be of some help to you!

  7. Hi Jeff I play Nascar Fantasy Live. We can pick 2 chase drivers and 2 non chase drivers. Right now I have Kesloski and Blaney for my non chase drivers what would you suggest if it weren’t those 2 drivers? Again you have very help with stats and why you choose whom you choose.

  8. First off thank you for what you do. I enjoy and use your advice alot. I do the DraftKings and read what you and others have to say. My ? is which is more important, the stats or the speed they are showing for that weekend? I see alot of times that a driver always finishes in the top 5,10,15 but thier practice speeds dont show that. Are you to assume that they just find a way to get up front at that track or that they just dont have it that week. And once again thanks for all you do

    1. I write my articles at the beginning of the week before any of the practice sessions. I give my advice based on a drivers recent success or failure at a certain track combined with how they have been running lately. Some drivers will qualify well, but then they don’t make good adjustments to their car and end up finishing poorly while others might not qualify well or end up starting at the rear for various reasons. There is really no way to know if a driver is going to have mechanical problems or end up with some type of penalty during the race, so I have to go with how they have done recently.

    1. No one rides the wall like Larson, but I would have to say that Kyle Busch will run well up there if he needs to find another line.

  9. DDG, B group l, 9 definitely, which one between 1, 14, 21, .. on roster. ..?
    knowingly you said stay away from the 14, but 14 on roster, figuring 14 might be looking better than expected, no plays left on the other top B drivers.

    1. The 14 hasn’t been good here in his career, but he is in one of the Stewart-Haas vehicles that have been fast all year and he has no pressure on him this week. Probably worth taking a chance on.

    1. I like the 3 this week the best out of these three. He has run pretty well lately. Then I would follow him with the 31 and then the 1.

  10. Jeff, Thanks again for all your help this entire race season. Jumped to first last week and have a 52 point lead. Want to at least win the league this year. Right now I have kyle and harvick in Group A . elliott and jones in B. and johnson in C. Your thoughts. Could change B group to 11,12 or 42 and C group to 17,21,31 or 88. Thanks again and hope you do it next year again. Have a good holiday season.

  11. I have been following your thought for a couple years now thank you! We pick 2.drivers each week and how they finish is your points and.lowest points are obviously the best . I am in first place and only ahead by 15 points. He is picking the 42 and the 3 for homestead . I have 78 and obviously Going to use him but I need to do better I was think the 48 but I’m so unsure and I only have the 1 , 21, 48, and 78 . What 2 driver do u think will do better than the 42 and the 3 . Please and thank you 🙂

    1. The 78 is a definite. Other than that I would take either Johnson or Menard. Tough call. Go with the experience of Johnson and hope for the best.

  12. Thanks for all the advice all year. 1 last need of help. I have Truex, Elliot, Blakey , and McDowell in to start. Logan’s, Newman, Mcmurray , and Buescher on bench. Any thoughts?

  13. Thanks for your help this season Jeff.
    A. Bush, Truex
    B. Almirola, Dillon, Bowyer, Newman
    C. Buuesher, McDowell
    What’s my best lineup?

  14. So championship 4 won’t get stage points today, the rest of the field does. Who scores most total points today, stage + finish? (Different than my previous question now that we know championship 4 don’t get stage points). Pick top 5 here. Thinking some of the guys outside championship 4 have a chance to outscore them with the stage points.

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