As the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Homestead-Miami Speedway, the high-banked turns and fast-paced action of this steep track promise another thrilling race. Homestead-Miami, known for its unique progressive banking, has produced a variety of outcomes over the years, with some drivers excelling at navigating the challenging turns, while others struggle to find consistency. This week, we're focusing on drivers who have shown strength on Accupredict's STEEP TRACK TYPES like Bristol, Dover, Darlington, Homestead-Miami and Las Vegas - the location of last week's Southpoint 400 Cup race - as well as those with solid track history at Homestead-Miami itself.
Accupredict's Steep Track Group
Homestead-Miami Speedway is part of the 'Steep Track' group in the Accupredict (AP) system - a classification that also includes challenging circuits like Bristol, Darlington, Dover and Las Vegas. These tracks demand not only raw speed but also precision handling through high - speed turns, making performance on Steep tracks a key indicator for success at Homestead.
The drivers featured in this article are not just the usual favorites but a blend of top contenders, consistent performers, and dark horse picks that could shake up the leaderboard. Whether you're a fantasy player looking for an edge or a NASCAR fan curious about whom to watch, this breakdown offers insight into the drivers that could make the difference in the Straight Talk Wireless 400 this Sunday.
High Hopes and Steady Performance
Denny Hamlin
- #11 Mavis Tire Toyota
- Joe Gibbs Racing
Denny Hamlin is a driver who has shown immense strength on steep tracks, and his performances at Homestead-Miami have generally been solid, making him a reliable contender for this week's race.
- AP Predicted Finish: Hamlin is ranked 2nd in AP predictions with a projected finish of 9.63. His strong average at STEEP tracks places him near the front of the field for this weekend's race.
- Average Finish at Last 8 Steep Track Races: With an average finish of 7.88 on steep tracks, Hamlin consistently excels on high-speed circuits, giving him a competitive edge going into Homestead-Miami.
- Historical Performance at Homestead-Miami: Last year, Hamlin finished 30th due to a wreck on lap 236 of 267. However, his performance in that race was promising, with an average running position of 9.3, the 7th best of all drivers, and he led 31 laps before the incident. Prior to that, Hamlin logged finishes of 7th, 11th, 1st, 10th, and 12th, showing that Homestead-Miami is generally a strong track for him.
Key Trend
Strong Performer:Hamlin's history at Homestead-Miami, combined with his strength on STEEP tracks, makes him a top contender. His ability to run at the front of the pack, even in tough conditions, suggests that Hamlin is a solid pick for fantasy players and bettors this weekend. Keep an eye on his practice and qualifying results to confirm his pace before the race.
Consistent Competitor
Christopher Bell
- #20 Rheem Toyota
- Joe Gibbs Racing
Christopher Bell enters the Homestead-Miami race with solid credentials on steep tracks and strong recent performances at this particular venue:
- AP Predicted Finish: Bell is ranked 3rd in Accupredict's rankings and projected to finish 11.48. His track history suggests he's a strong contender here.
- Average Finish at Last 8 Steep Track Races: Bell's average finish on STEEP tracks sits at 12.63, showing he's competitive on these types of high-banking circuits. His dominating performance last week in Las Vegas is a testament to that as well.
- Historical Performance at Homestead-Miami: Bell's results at Homestead are impressive, with a 2-year average of 6.0 and a 4-year average of 10.0, consistently putting him in contention for a top finish.
Key Trend
Consistency Across the Board:Bell's strength on STEEP tracks and consistent finishes at Homestead-Miami make him a reliable choice for this race. His ability to stay competitive in both metrics suggests a solid top-10 finish, making him a strong pick for fantasy rosters.
Veteran Experience and Strong Track Record
Kyle Busch
- #8 Rebel Bourbon Chevrolet
- Richard Childress Racing
Kyle Busch is another driver to watch, with a mix of strong STEEP track performance and respectable history at Homestead-Miami:
- AP Predicted Finish: Busch is ranked 11th on Accupredict with a projected finish of 14.58, but his experience and track record often surpass his predicted metrics
- Average Finish at Last 8 Steep Track Races: His average finish of 17.50 on STEEP tracks might not seem top-tier, but Busch has proven time and time again that he can outperform expectations.
- Historical Performance at Homestead-Miami: Busch has a solid 2-year average finish of 13.5, with an even better 4-year average of 10.8, and still better 6-year average of 8th. His move to RCR has affected performance for sure, but Homestead-Miami tends to favor his racing style.
Key Trend
Experience Matters:Kyle Busch's history of strong finishes at Homestead-Miami, combined with his experience on steep tracks, makes him a driver to watch. Though his AP predicted finish is lower, his track record at Homestead suggests he could surprise the field.
Steady Performer at Homestead
William Byron
- #24 Valvoline Chevrolet
- Hendrick Motorsports
William Byron has shown consistent strength at Homestead-Miami, making him a solid pick for a top finish despite a less dominant performance on STEEP tracks:
- AP Predicted Finish: Byron is ranked 4th by Accupredict with a finish of 11.91 in the AP projections. His steady progression of top finishes at Homestead-Miami show he is very capable here.
- Average Finish at Last 8 Steep Track Races: His average finish of 17.38 at the last 8 STEEP track races isn't among the elite, but Byron has a knack for performing well on race day, especially at Homestead.
- Historical Performance at Homestead-Miami: Byron's average finish here is 8.0 over the last two years, with a stellar 4-year average of 6.5, showing that he's a reliable pick for a top-10 finish.
Key Trend
Strong Homestead History:Byron's excellent average finish at Homestead-Miami, particularly over the past four years, makes him a reliable pick for a solid top-10 run. His performance at this track is hard to overlook for fantasy players and bettors.
Mid-Tier Surprise
AJ Allmendinger
- #16 Worldwide Express Chevrolet
- Kaulig Racing
AJ Allmendinger may not be a top-tier driver on steep tracks, but his recent results at Homestead-Miami suggest he could be a sleeper pick for a strong finish:
- AP Predicted Finish: Allmendinger is Accupredict ranked 17th with a projected to finish 19.22, placing him in the mid-tier. However, his track record at Homestead suggests he could outperform this expectation.
- Average Finish at Last 8 Steep Track Races: His average finish of 16.00 at STEEP tracks is solid - better than William Byron and Kyle Busch highlighted above - but not among the elite in other Accupredict metrics. That said, his ability to navigate high-speed turns makes him a contender for a surprise finish.
- Historical Performance at Homestead-Miami: Allmendinger boasts a 2-year average finish of 4.0, with finishes of 3rd and 5th, making him one of the most consistent drivers recently at this track.
Key Trend
Surprising Consistency at Homestead:Allmendinger's strong recent history at Homestead-Miami, despite a less dominant performance on steep tracks, makes him a driver to consider for a solid top-10 or top-15 finish. He's a sleeper pick that could outperform his projections.
Reliable Top-15 Finish
Austin Dillon
- #3 Bass Pro Shops / Tracker Boats Chevrolet
- Richard Childress Racing
Austin Dillon is another mid-tier driver who could surprise with a strong finish, based on his consistent results at Homestead-Miami:
- AP Predicted Finish: Dillon is ranked 20th by Accupredict and projected to finish 20.14, but his past results at Homestead suggest he's capable of doing better than expected.
- Average Finish at Last 8 Steep Track Races: His average finish of 22.25 at STEEP tracks may not impress, but Dillon's history at Homestead-Miami tells a different story.
- Historical Performance at Homestead-Miami: Dillon's 2-year average finish is 7.0, 4-year average is 8.3, and 6-year average is 8.6, showing that Homestead is a track where he can shine.
Key Trend
Underrated Consistency:Dillon's strong track history at Homestead-Miami makes him a solid pick for a top-15 finish. Despite lower predictions on STEEP tracks, he consistently outperforms at this venue, making him a valuable sleeper pick.
Silent Speedster
Bubba Wallace
- #23 McDonald's / RMHC Toyota
- 23XI Racing
Bubba Wallace has quietly performed well at Homestead, with a 6th and 13th place finish over his last 3 races here, making him a great dark horse pick for a strong finish.
- AP Rank & Predicted Finish: 16th & 18.09
- Average Finish at Last 8 Steep Track Races: 17.50
- Last Homestead-Miami Finish: 6th
Homestead Top-15 in Sight
Daniel Suarez
- #99 FreewayFranchise.com Chevrolet
- Trackhouse Racing
Suarez has been a steady performer, with a 13.0 average over the past two years at Homestead. His results on STEEP tracks are decent but not extraordinary. However, given his consistent performance at Homestead, he could sneak into the top 15 or 20 in this race, making him a low-risk, high-reward choice.
- AP Rank & Predicted Finish: 19th & 20.11
- Average Finish at Last 8 Steep Track Races: 17.38
- Last 3 Homestead-Miami Finishes: 16th, 10th, 15th (most recent to oldest)
Both Wallace and Suarez have the potential to outperform expectations, and for fantasy players or bettors looking for some under-the-radar picks, they could be worth considering.
As we gear up for another exciting race at Homestead-Miami Speedway, these drivers - whether top-tier favorites like Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell, or dark horses like Bubba Wallace and Daniel Suarez - are all worth keeping an eye on. Homestead is a track where preparation and consistency meet opportunity, and with so much on the line this late in the season, there's no shortage of intrigue.
Make sure to check out practice and qualifying sessions to finalize your picks, and get ready for another action-packed race.
