Analyzing Accupredict Driver Projection Metric: Driver Rating at Track
In this week's 'Driver Rating' preview for the Straight Talk Wireless 400 at Homestead-Miami I identify some top contenders to win as well as some mid-tier drivers to keep your eye on.
What is so important about Driver Rating?
NASCAR's Loop Data Driver Rating is a metric that quantifies a driver's performance in a single race. This rating is calculated using a detailed formula that takes into account various critical race statistics, including finishing position, average running position, average speed, and fastest laps. Additional bonus points are awarded for achievements such as winning the race, leading the most laps, and maintaining a strong average running position. The perfect Driver Rating is 150.0.
For this analysis, I reviewed data from the last 19 Cup races held at Homestead-Miami Speedway, focusing on Driver Ratings from the top-10 finishers in each race. This analysis helps us understand what it takes to compete at the front of the field at this track.
I like to start out with my baselines of what it took to finish in the top-10 in previous Homestead-Miami races.
Average Driver Rating of Top-10 Finishers at Homestead-Miami Speedway
Here we have the last 19-races and the Average Driver Rating of the top-10 finishers. Also, the Minimum (or lowest) and the Maximum (or highest) of the Driver Ratings in the top-10. Finally, the winners Driver Rating.
| Race Name | Date | Average Rating | Min Rating | Max Rating | Winner Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4EVER 400 presented by Mobil 1 | Oct-23 | 97.56 | 74.40 | 123.70 | 105.30 |
| Dixie Vodka 400 | Oct-22 | 100.61 | 78.10 | 150.00 | 150.00 |
| Dixie Vodka 400 | Feb-21 | 102.70 | 77.50 | 139.80 | 139.80 |
| Dixie Vodka 400 | Jun-20 | 104.87 | 82.70 | 140.70 | 140.70 |
| Ford EcoBoost 400 | Nov-19 | 105.66 | 84.00 | 138.70 | 138.70 |
| Ford EcoBoost 400 | Nov-18 | 106.16 | 84.90 | 137.10 | 137.10 |
| Ford EcoBoost 400 | Nov-17 | 108.91 | 79.30 | 140.10 | 129.30 |
| Ford EcoBoost 400 | Nov-16 | 101.35 | 71.50 | 127.80 | 109.90 |
| Ford EcoBoost 400 | Nov-15 | 111.13 | 88.90 | 136.10 | 136.10 |
| Ford EcoBoost 400 | Nov-14 | 107.87 | 84.90 | 138.20 | 132.70 |
| Ford EcoBoost 400 | Nov-13 | 111.28 | 91.70 | 139.90 | 130.00 |
| Ford EcoBoost 400 | Nov-12 | 102.97 | 82.40 | 142.50 | 116.00 |
| Ford 400 | Nov-11 | 108.30 | 83.60 | 141.30 | 126.30 |
| Ford 400 | Nov-10 | 105.97 | 84.70 | 150.00 | 150.00 |
| Ford 400 | Nov-09 | 108.99 | 86.10 | 126.70 | 123.10 |
| Ford 400 | Nov-08 | 97.81 | 73.00 | 147.10 | 147.10 |
| Ford 400 | Nov-07 | 109.87 | 88.30 | 149.80 | 149.80 |
| Ford 400 | Nov-06 | 105.82 | 86.60 | 133.50 | 133.50 |
| Ford 400 | Nov-05 | 110.76 | 91.00 | 134.60 | 118.60 |
| AVERAGES | 105.72 | 82.82 | 138.82 | 132.32 |
Driver Rating Trends at Homestead-Miami Speedway (2005+)
The trend chart shows the following insights:
- Average Driver Rating: There is a gradual fluctuation over time, with some races showing a higher average (especially around 2020 and beyond). This could indicate periods of higher overall performance or dominance by top drivers.
- Winner's Driver Rating: The winner's Driver Rating tends to be higher than the average in most races, as expected. Some races show a clear gap between the winner and the rest of the field, suggesting strong individual performances, especially in races with very high winner ratings (e.g., October 2022 and February 2021).
- Rating Range (Max - Min): The range between the highest and lowest top-10 Driver Ratings fluctuates across the races. Some races have a narrower range, which suggests a more competitive top-10, while others have a larger gap, indicating a more dominant top performer compared to the rest of the field.
2022 and 2023 Next Gen Era
The 2022 and 2023 races at Homestead-Miami marked the introduction of the NextGen car, bringing some notable changes to the field's performance. While driver ratings have generally remained competitive, 2022 stands out with particularly dominant performances, such as Kyle Larson's perfect Driver Rating of 150.0, showcasing the potential for individual drivers to assert dominance in this new era. The 2023 race, while still competitive, saw a slightly more even distribution of ratings across the top finishers.
Looking at the broader trend of Driver Ratings over the years, there is no clear upward or downward trajectory. However, we do see that the period from 2005 to 2019, when Homestead-Miami was the final race of the season, generally featured higher average Driver Ratings. This can likely be attributed to the added pressure of being the Championship race from 2014 to 2019, where the top 4 Playoff drivers fought to secure their best possible finishes. The intensity of these high-stakes races likely contributed to stronger performances and higher ratings during that era.
Since the track is no longer the finale, we've seen a slight dip in overall ratings, but the races remain highly competitive, especially with the introduction of the NextGen car.
Drivers to Consider at Homestead-Miami Speedway
Here are the drivers that show outstanding Driver Ratings at Homestead-Miami and those with encouraging Driver Rating trends.
A Top Contender at Homestead-Miami Speedway
Kyle Larson
- #5 HendrickCars.com Chevrolet
- Hendrick Motorsports
- Next Gen Driver Rating: 130.35
Kyle Larson enters Homestead-Miami Speedway as the Accupredict favorite, ranked 1st with a 16.7% chance to win and a 84.2% chance of finishing in the top-10. Larson has a strong track record at this venue, with impressive performances in recent years, including a win in 2022. His average Driver Rating of 115.86 at Homestead reflects his consistent dominance at this track, showcasing his ability to perform well in varying conditions.
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Avg Driver Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 105.80 | 96.80 | n/a | 116.00 | 150.00 | 110.70 | 115.86 |
Larson also carries excellent momentum into this race. His Year-to-Date Driver Rating of 100.83 highlights his consistent performance this season. In the last six races, Larson has maintained an average finish of 9.2, making him a strong contender to watch this weekend. His ability to lead laps and rack up fast laps further strengthens his case, with 135 fast laps and 526 laps led in total across recent races.
With solid projections from Accupredict and strong current form, Larson is well-positioned for another top-tier performance at Homestead-Miami, making him a prime pick for fantasy teams and bettors
A Driver on the Rise
Christopher Bell
- #20 Rheem Toyota
- Joe Gibbs Racing
- Next Gen Driver Rating: 92.70
Christopher Bell comes into Homestead ranked 3rd by Accupredict with a 10.6% chance to win and a 71.7% chance of finishing in the top-10, showcasing his rising form at this track. Although Bell doesn't have as many high finishes as some of his peers, his 105.3 Driver Rating in 2023 signals that he is becoming a force at Homestead-Miami. Bell's average Driver Rating at this track over the last five races is 82.68, but his performance in the NextGen era (92.7) reflects his adaptation to the new car
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Avg Driver Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| n/a | n/a | 82.70 | 62.60 | 80.10 | 105.30 | 92.70 |
Bell also brings strong current form, with an average finish of 6.0 over the last six races this season. He's been competitive in every event, scoring 144 fast laps and leading 278 laps in that span, making him a potential dark horse for this weekend.
With his solid showing in the NextGen car and strong recent finishes, Bell is one to watch at Homestead-Miami. While not the outright favorite, his upward trajectory suggests he could be a valuable addition to your fantasy lineup.
A Solid Competitor
Martin Truex Jr
- #19 Bass Pro Shops Toyota
- Joe Gibbs Racing
- Next Gen Driver Rating: 103.70
Martin Truex Jr. comes into Homestead ranked 7th by Accupredict with a 5.6% chance to win and a 59.6% chance of finishing in the top-10. He's historically been a strong performer at this track, with an average Driver Rating of 110.85 across the last six races at Homestead-Miami. Truex's ability to adapt to different track conditions is evident in his consistent results, particularly during the 2019 and 2021 seasons, where he had Driver Ratings of 130.6 and 119.1, respectively.
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Avg Driver Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 121.40 | 130.60 | 86.60 | 119.10 | 118.50 | 88.90 | 110.85 |
Truex has a strong NextGen Driver Rating of 103.7, making him a serious contender for a top finish at Homestead this weekend. His current form also points to competitive potential, with an average finish of 14.3 over the last six races. While not as dominant as some of his peers, Truex is always a threat, particularly on intermediate tracks like Homestead-Miami.
His experience and past success at this venue make him a solid pick for fantasy players and bettors, especially if he can regain the form he showed earlier in the season.
A Rising Star
Ryan Blaney
- #12 Menards / Richmond Water Heaters Ford
- Team Penske
- Next Gen Driver Rating: 105.95
Ryan Blaney has been a consistent performer at Homestead-Miami, with an average Driver Rating of 95.95. His most recent Driver Rating in 2023 (123.7) signals a significant improvement, and his NextGen Driver Rating of 105.95 shows that he has adapted well to the new car.
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Avg Driver Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75.80 | 101.50 | 122.30 | 64.20 | 88.20 | 123.70 | 95.95 |
Blaney's current form is not as strong as his recent performance at Homestead would suggest, with an average finish of 21.5 in the last six races. However, his improvement at Homestead over the years, combined with his solid NextGen Driver Rating, suggests he could be poised for a strong showing this weekend.
With his ability to lead laps and accumulate fast laps, Blaney could surprise and outperform his projected finish, making him a sleeper pick for fantasy lineups.
Dark Horse Contender
Ross Chastain
- #1 Kubota Chevrolet
- Trackhouse Racing
- Next Gen Driver Rating: 90.00
Ross Chastain enters Homestead ranked 15th by Accupredict with a 42.6% chance of finishing in the top-10, but his recent performance at this track shows potential. While he has fewer starts at Homestead compared to others, Chastain's 2022 Driver Rating of 105.4 and his NextGen Driver Rating of 90.0 signal he's capable of strong results.
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Avg Driver Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| n/a | n/a | n/a | 66.30 | 105.40 | 74.60 | 82.10 |
Chastain's current form is somewhat mixed, with an average finish of 15.2 over the last six races. While he may not be a top contender based on current trends, his ability to lead laps (120 led in recent races) and record fast laps makes him an intriguing pick for those looking to take a calculated risk.
With a solid run at Homestead in 2022, Chastain has the potential to surprise, especially if he can replicate his strong performance in the NextGen car.
A Dark Horse
Brad Keselowski
- #6 Consumer Cellular Ford
- RFK Racing
- Next Gen Driver Rating: 94.85
Brad Keselowski has been a consistent presence at Homestead-Miami, with an average Driver Rating of 91.77 across his last six races at the track. His most recent Driver Ratings from 2021 (107.2) and 2022 (102.8) indicate strong performances, with a NextGen Driver Rating of 94.85. Although Keselowski is ranked 13th by Accupredict with a 49.4% chance of finishing in the top-10. His solid history at this track makes him worth considering
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Avg Driver Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97.40 | 69.60 | 86.70 | 107.20 | 102.80 | 86.90 | 91.77 |
While his current form shows an average finish of 22.7 in the last six races, his track record at Homestead, combined with his ability to lead laps and score fast laps, gives him the potential to surprise this weekend.
A Consistent Performer
Austin Dillon
- #3 Bass Pro Shops / Tracker Boats Chevrolet
- Richard Childress Racing
- Next Gen Driver Rating: 93.00
Austin Dillon consistently delivers at Homestead, with an average Driver Rating of 89.00. His NextGen Era Driver Rating is 93.0, which shows he has adapted well to the new car. Dillon's most recent Driver Rating of 96.1 in 2023 indicates he's performing strongly at this track.
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Avg Driver Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77.30 | 93.30 | 86.30 | 91.10 | 89.90 | 96.10 | 89.00 |
Dillon's current form isn't as strong, with an average finish of 23.2 over the last six races. However, his consistent improvement at Homestead makes him worth considering for those looking for a steady performer who could deliver another solid result.
Watchlist
AJ Allmendinger
- #16 Worldwide Express Chevrolet
- Kaulig Racing
- Next Gen Driver Rating: 95.90
AJ Allmendinger has shown improvement at Homestead in the NextGen era, with a 2022 Driver Rating of 101.8 and a NextGen Driver Rating of 95.9. While he's ranked 17th by Accupredict with a 27.5% chance of finishing in the top-10, his recent performance at this track makes him worth watching.
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Avg Driver Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61.60 | n/a | n/a | n/a | 101.80 | 90.00 | 84.47 |
His current form, however, is less promising, with an average finish of 23.3 over the last six races. Allmendinger's recent improvement at Homestead could make him a sleeper pick, but his current form suggests caution.
Driver Rating is just one metric to consider
Although one of the top metrics in the Accupredict algorithm - Driver Rating is not the only one to look at. Since Driver Rating falls under a 'historical statistic', winning in the Cup Series is closely tied to the current performance a driver is achieving. An extended practice session this weekend and qualifying should help you add additional value or takeaway from these seven drivers.
