Drivers to Watch After Strong Practice and Qualifying at Las Vegas Motor Speedway

 Christopher Bell reacts after winning the pole award
Las Vegas, Nevada - October 19, 2024 : Christopher Bell, driver of the #20 Rheem Toyota, reacts after winning the pole award during qualifying for the NASCAR Cup Series South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
Meg OliphantGetty Images

When evaluating drivers for NASCAR fantasy or DFS picks, practice and qualifying sessions offer critical insights. While a single fast lap in practice or qualifying can be impressive, it's often more valuable to assess a driver's long-run performance, as races are won through consistency over many laps. By focusing on multi-lap averages like the 5-, 10-, and 15-lap runs, we can identify which drivers are likely to perform well during long green-flag stretches, maintaining speed while others might drop off.

Additionally, qualifying position plays a role in determining early race control, giving us further insight into potential frontrunners.

Top Performers and Long Run Specialists

In NASCAR, consistency is king, and drivers who maintain fast speeds over extended runs tend to fare well on race day.

Tyler Reddick, Martin Truex Jr., and Ross Chastain all demonstrated the ability to stay quick over multiple laps, positioning them as strong contenders. When combined with solid qualifying efforts, they become even more attractive picks for fantasy players looking for drivers who can lead laps and contend for a win.

DriverMakeBest Lap Speed5-Lap Avg10-Lap Avg15-Lap AvgQualifying Position
Tyler ReddickToyota183.187 mph29.74629.977--2
Martin Truex JrToyota182.723 mph29.71629.97330.17712
Ross ChastainChevrolet182.402 mph29.77729.98530.1847
  • Tyler Reddick: Fastest single lap and consistently strong over 5- and 10-lap averages. His high qualifying position further supports a strong early race presence.
  • Martin Truex Jr: Showed solid speed over 10- and 15-lap runs, which points to durability in longer green flag periods. A slightly lower qualifying position means he might take longer to reach the front.
  • Ross Chastain: Though not the fastest in any one category, his steady improvement across 5-, 10-, and 15-lap averages make him a solid pick for consistent top-10 potential.

Drivers with a Small Drop-Off in Average 5-lap segments

A driver's ability to maintain speed over multiple laps can be a strong indicator of race-day success.

Some drivers show minimal drop-off from their 5-lap to 10- and 15-lap averages, meaning their cars are well-balanced and their setups are stable. This gives them a higher chance of staying competitive during long green-flag runs. Drivers like Shane van Gisbergen and Joey Logano stood out for their minimal drop-off, making them solid choices for consistency throughout the race.

DRIVERPRACTICE 5-LAP AVG TIMEPRACTICE 10-LAP AVG TIMEPRACTICE 15-LAP AVG TIMEDROP-OFF 5 TO 10 LAPSDROP-OFF 10 TO 15 LAPS
Shane van Gisbergen30.53130.58230.6790.0510.097
Joey Logano30.19330.27730.3290.0840.052
Daniel Hemric30.18430.28930.4000.1050.111
Todd Gilliland30.04930.16030.3290.1110.169
Chase Elliott29.8729.98930.1180.1190.129
Josh Berry30.10330.22330.3420.1200.119
Michael McDowell30.35630.48730.5660.1310.079
William Byron30.36230.49430.5980.1320.104
Ryan Preece30.21930.35330.5210.1340.168
Noah Gragson30.0930.23430.3570.1440.123
Denny Hamlin29.89330.05430.1770.1610.123
Daniel Suarez29.91930.08030.2670.1610.187
Justin Haley29.90830.07030.2300.1620.160
Kyle Larson29.82629.99130.1180.1650.127
Austin Cindric30.23530.41330.5140.1780.101
Kyle Busch29.99830.19030.3180.1920.128
Ross Chastain29.77729.98530.1840.2080.199
Ricky Stenhouse Jr30.36330.58730.7600.2240.173
Harrison Burton30.53230.76530.7810.2330.016
Bubba Wallace29.92330.16630.2930.2430.127
Zane Smith29.82230.06830.2610.2460.193
Martin Truex Jr29.71629.97330.1770.2570.204
Ty Gibbs29.76830.03030.2030.2620.173
Alex Bowman29.82030.08830.2630.2680.175
Christopher Bell29.98130.45630.5440.4750.088

How do the Three Manufacturers Compare?

The comparison between manufacturers reveals interesting trends.

Toyota drivers showed slightly higher top speeds and more consistent performance across long-run averages compared to Chevrolet and Ford. This gives Toyota drivers a potential edge in the race, especially over longer green-flag runs. Chevrolet drivers, while competitive, demonstrated slightly higher drop-offs in long-run performance. Ford, while lagging behind in top speed, may still present an underdog opportunity if their drivers can balance speed and strategy effectively.

MANUFACTURERAVG BEST LAP SPEEDAVG 5-LAP TIMEAVG 10-LAP TIMEAVG 15-LAP TIME
Toyota182.10529.85630.13630.279
Chevrolet181.16630.03230.20130.350
Ford179.63030.22230.36430.467

Practice and qualifying at Las Vegas Motor Speedway gave us some strong indicators of race-day performance.

Drivers like Tyler Reddick, Martin Truex Jr., and Ross Chastain excelled not just in single-lap speed but also in maintaining their pace over longer runs, positioning them as strong picks for this race. Additionally, manufacturers like Toyota are showing a competitive edge in long-run consistency, which could make their drivers prime candidates for fantasy picks.

As always, focusing on both qualifying position and long-run speed is key to making informed decisions.

Weekly NASCAR race previews that each highlight a key metric from the Accupredict projection algorithm. I uncover trends to help you gain an edge in NASCAR fantasy, DFS platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel, and sports wagering.

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